125 Lost Creek Trl · Abilene, TX 79602

$242,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,356 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21289111 - Built by NHC - Sep 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600-1 B1 - Everglades The Everglades Plan from our Freedom Series offers an ideal blend of space, functionality, and value. This charming 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,600 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into the welcoming entryway, where you’ll find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the laundry room and into the open concept living area. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for meals and family time. Upstairs, the prim

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing condition; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA fees)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage faces front
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two-story; New construction (incomplete as of 2025)
• Construction: Composition roof; Siding exterior; Slab foundation; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Subdivision: Waterside at Cedar Creek; Lot less than 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Seven total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Two levels

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $243k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 6.8% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alcorta El (math 35% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 451 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $242,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.04%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,200
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1730 N 3rd St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,648 (+3%)	2mo	$209,000	$127	52
1833 N 7th St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (-5%)	6mo	$80,000	$53	45
342 Poplar St	0.69mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,698 (+6%)	7mo	$130,000	$77	44
1737 N 3rd St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (-9%)	6mo	$165,000	$113	42
750 Merchant St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+8%)	7mo	$117,000	$68	40
1002 Cedar St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (-8%)	24mo	$45,000	$30	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $11,983
• Equity at exit: $36,231

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $125,781
• Equity at exit: $21,009

Cash invested: $68,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,847 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,645/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,126

Max offer price $242,990

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $737	-5% $653	+0% $569	+5% $486	+10% $402
Rent	-10% $345	-5% $457	+0% $569	+5% $682	+10% $794
Rate	-1.0pp $692	-0.5pp $631	base $569	+0.5pp $507	+1.0pp $442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,748
• Closing costs: $7,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
702 N 13th St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,200	$1.65	15d	1	0.75mi
1426 Plum St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$2,014	$1.85	15d	1	0.86mi
725 Peach St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$3,500	$2.16	23d	1	0.96mi
1209 Kirkwood St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,500	$1.49	23d	1	1.26mi
1638 Merchant St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,895	$2.18	15d	1	1.28mi
825 Milford St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	2068	$2,895	$1.40	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-03
   price $242,990 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-03
   listed $235,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,611
• − Property taxes: −$3,645
• − Insurance: −$1,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,733
• − Management: −$2,733
• − Depreciation: −$7,069
• Taxable income: $3,153
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$757
• After-tax cash flow: $6,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is move-in ready with excellent condition and a modern design, making it an ideal investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $235,990 NTREIS