942 Guelbreth Ln #208 · Creve Coeur, MO 63141

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Condo public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1981 $305/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 942 Guelbreth #208 — a charming, move-in-ready condo in the highly sought-after Ladue School District (Spoede Elementary)! This spacious unit features a well-equipped kitchen with ample cabinetry, a pantry, and all appliances included. Enjoy the oversized living and dining area filled with natural light, a generous bedroom with a 6’x5’ walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bathroom. Additional perks include sewer, water, and trash services covered in the HOA, plus an assigned 1-car garage space. Ideally located near highways, Costco, restaurants, shopping, and both public and private schools, this condo offers the perfect blend of convenience and comfort. Don’t miss this opportunity to live in the heart of Ladue!

Key facts

• $305 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 46 units in the community
• HOA & community: Carriage House Manor association; Monthly HOA fee of $305; HOA covers insurance, grounds maintenance, parking/roads maintenance, management, security, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water; Association amenities include common ground, outside management and parking

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Attached garage with garage door opener; 1-car garage
• Security: Association-managed security (included in HOA)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Natural gas connected; Phone available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Updated/remodeled; Private ownership
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Near public transit; Asphalt road surface; Private road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Fire alarm; Kitchen facilities
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-803/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (9.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.7% in Creve Coeur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Ladue (suburban): math 64% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #2 of 324 in MO (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Spoede Elementary (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #21 of 1,115 statewide, top 2%, 365 students, 13% FRL); Ladue Middle (math 58% / reading 68%, grade B+, #12 of 391 statewide, top 3%, 1,018 students, 12% FRL); Ladue Horton Watkins High (math 70% / reading 72%, grade B+, #8 of 521 statewide, top 1%, 1,313 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 12% of the median local income ($134k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $125k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,174 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-24,918
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-28,812
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63141

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,303 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,007/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$305
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $113,174

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-32	+0% $-67	+5% $-102	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-118	+0% $-67	+5% $-15	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-35	base $-67	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10427 Briarbend Dr #8 Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	858	$1,350	$1.57	25d	1	0.13mi
10427 Briarbend Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	858	$1,350	$1.57	0d	1	0.14mi
10352 Forest Brook Ln Unit G Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	45d	1	0.29mi
10364 Forest Brook Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,400	$1.33	45d	1	0.30mi
10368 Forest Brook Ln Unit F Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,350	$1.28	45d	1	0.31mi
10304 Oxford Hill Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,089	$1.18	4d	47	0.49mi
1380 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,550	$1.70	16d	1	0.84mi
9882 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	45d	1	0.84mi
9826 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	45d	1	0.84mi
9814 Greenery Ln Unit D Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$1,250	$1.43	25d	1	0.84mi
9814 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	45d	1	0.84mi
1434 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,395	$1.53	45d	1	0.86mi
10900 Oak Forest Pkwy Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,025	$1.28	5d	6	1.08mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $305 · $3,660/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 687-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$206/yr (+$17/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,007
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,251
• − Management: −$1,251
• − HOA: −$3,660
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,794
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$670
• After-tax cash flow: $-133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ladue
• NCES district ID: 2917820
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $109,713
• Composite: 62.57/100
• National rank: #681
• State rank: #2 of 324 in MO

Livability — Creve Coeur

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1519

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Creve Coeur, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 43,243
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 20,932
• Household income: $133,851
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 592.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.56%
• Current HPI: 220.5445
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+194.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-02 Coming Soon $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Listed $99,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-03 Coming Soon $99,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $74,250 Public Records
• 2022-02-11 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-10 Listed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-08 Coming Soon $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1981-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,007 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.