127 Heron Way · Schlusser, PA 17013

$225,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,328 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1998 2,614 sqft lot Est $218k · at est. $90/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What an amazing new home! This one you have to see! Not many 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath homes is the subdivision! It is absolute renovated from top to bottom. Every bathroom, kitchen, new heating/cooling source and water heater, even has a new roof. The kitchen has new quartz countertops, newer appliances, and cabinets with soft close drawers and pull out shelfs, just beautiful. One bathroom has a bathtub and the other one a huge walk-in shower.

Key facts

• $90 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-672/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Schlusser — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,058 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Carlisle Area SD (urban): math 33% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #277 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crestview El Sch (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 516 students, 51% FRL); Wilson Ms (math 20% / reading 53%, grade F, #307 of 512 statewide, top 61%, 577 students, 52% FRL); Carlisle Area Hs (math 70% / reading 75%, grade B+, #37 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 1,578 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,405 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,792
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 Heron Way	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,328 (0%)	0mo	$248,000	$187	100
115-B Partridge Cir	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,328 (0%)	12mo	$250,000	$188	86
9 Partridge Cir	0.06mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,280 (-4%)	1mo	$200,000	$156	85
158 Faith Cir	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,288 (-3%)	4mo	$200,000	$155	57
37 Partridge Cir	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,188 (-10%)	24mo	$200,000	$168	51
69 Faith Cir	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,272 (-4%)	19mo	$201,000	$158	48
64 Faith Cir	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,272 (-4%)	22mo	$200,000	$157	47
60 Faith Cir	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,272 (-4%)	22mo	$208,000	$164	47
70 Imperial Ct	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,207 (-9%)	11mo	$230,000	$191	43
183 Faith Cir	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,232 (-7%)	6mo	$229,900	$187	43
208 Marion Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,520 (+14%)	14mo	$195,000	$128	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-40,871
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-43,613
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17013

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,833/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,025

Max offer price $215,104

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Heather Dr Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,200	$1.35	21d	1	0.41mi
130 Imperial Ct Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,650	$1.45	43d	1	0.55mi
1838 Mary Ln Carlisle, PA	3.0	1.5	1523	$800	$0.53	13d	1	0.98mi
1004 Rebecca St Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,720	$1.23	13d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 2026-04-14
   historical $225,000
4. 2023-04-18
   soldstatus $213,000
5. 2023-04-14
   soldstatus $213,000 Closed 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   What an amazing new home! This one you have to see! Not many 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath homes is the subdivision! It is absolute renovated from top to bottom. Every bathroom, kitchen, new heating/cooling source and water heater, even has a new roof. The kitchen has new quartz countertops, newer appliances, and cabinets with soft close drawers and pull out shelfs, just beautiful. One bathroom has a bathtub and the other one a huge walk-in shower.

6. 2023-03-11
   status Pending 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   What an amazing new home! This one you have to see! Not many 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath homes is the subdivision! It is absolute renovated from top to bottom. Every bathroom, kitchen, new heating/cooling source and water heater, even has a new roof. The kitchen has new quartz countertops, newer appliances, and cabinets with soft close drawers and pull out shelfs, just beautiful. One bathroom has a bathtub and the other one a huge walk-in shower.

7. 2023-03-09
   listed $199,500 Active 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   What an amazing new home! This one you have to see! Not many 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath homes is the subdivision! It is absolute renovated from top to bottom. Every bathroom, kitchen, new heating/cooling source and water heater, even has a new roof. The kitchen has new quartz countertops, newer appliances, and cabinets with soft close drawers and pull out shelfs, just beautiful. One bathroom has a bathtub and the other one a huge walk-in shower.

8. 2023-03-07
   historical $199,500 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   What an amazing new home! This one you have to see! Not many 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath homes is the subdivision! It is absolute renovated from top to bottom. Every bathroom, kitchen, new heating/cooling source and water heater, even has a new roof. The kitchen has new quartz countertops, newer appliances, and cabinets with soft close drawers and pull out shelfs, just beautiful. One bathroom has a bathtub and the other one a huge walk-in shower.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,833 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,194 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: +$361/yr (+$30/mo · 12.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,833
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4205010
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,334
• Composite: 38.23/100
• National rank: #4247
• State rank: #277 of 539 in PA

Livability — Schlusser

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1058
• US rank: #11941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Schlusser, PA
• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• City population: 37,738
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,513
• Household income: $71,042
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.48%
• Current HPI: 247.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+12.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Coming Soon $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $213,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-14 Sold (MLS) $213,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-09 Listed $199,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-07 Coming Soon $199,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,833 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.