15 Blake Dr · Pownal, VT 05261

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 470 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Brand-new construction! Excellent opportunity to get affordable housing in Southern Vermont. 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Full kitchen with dishwasher. Short drive to Bennington, VT or North Adams, MA, 1 hour or so to Albany. Act quick, properties like these sell fast!

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 57 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Taxes TBD

Exterior

• Utilities: 100 Amp electric service with 220V; Water source: other; Sewer: other; No known internet service
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Green exterior color; Shingle roof; Single-story (main living on one level); Mobile home is anchored; Located in an approved mobile home park (Evergreen Mobile Home Park)
• Construction: Vinyl exterior siding; Year built 2025; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Rural setting; Crushed stone driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom with attached bath (main level); Additional bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level); One 3/4 bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Hot air heating
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Open kitchen/living area
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($787/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($942 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $57/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $11,952
• Equity at exit: $37,153

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $40,758
• Equity at exit: $54,803

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05261

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$57 /mo · $680/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $859

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-03-31
   listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$1,130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$904
• − Management: −$904
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$155
• After-tax cash flow: $941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Pownal

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,200

Population outlook (Bennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,407 people
• By 2030: 32,975 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 29,711 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 26,638 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 21,318 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 16,086 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 4% Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bennington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.5) · D 60.0% · R 37.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 33.4pp · 2024: 22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.5 2020: D+27.3 2016: D+22.1 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+33.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.34%
• Current HPI: 301.5888
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $90,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $44 · +18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.