620 Horseshoe Bnd · Hahira, GA 31632

$330,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,953 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2012 0.34 ac lot Est $326k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lawson Farms in Hahira, GA. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this attractive 4BR/2BA Dixon Taylor plan offers convenience for sure. Step inside to a welcoming foyer that opens to a formal dining room featuring a coffered ceiling and wainscoting-perfect for hosting gatherings or a home office. The great room has a vaulted ceiling and a cozy fireplace flanked by windows. The kitchen is a standout with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, tiled backsplash, breakfast bar, center work island with overhead pot hanger, and a pantry cabinet with pullouts. A bright breakfast area overlooks the backyard and screened porch, making it the perfect spot to start your day. Just o

Key facts

• Wainscoting
• Vaulted ceiling
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COFFERED CEILING
• WAINSCOTING
• VAULTED CEILING
• COZY FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (35.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#161 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, health & safety D.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hahira Elementary School (math 72% / reading 55%, grade B, #99 of 1,228 statewide, top 8%, 807 students, 40% FRL); Hahira Middle School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B+, #30 of 470 statewide, top 6%, 859 students, 32% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $330k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,876 (35.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.22%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,151
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
769 Carriage Xing	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,930 (-1%)	1mo	$319,900	$166	88
535 Cottonwood Cv	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,074 (+6%)	1mo	$335,000	$162	82
751 Fry Rd	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,839 (-6%)	2mo	$349,900	$190	80
629 Barnside Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,110 (+8%)	1mo	$291,900	$138	79
1213 Phats Way	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-8%)	2mo	$303,000	$168	75
1138 Hannah Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-8%)	3mo	$299,900	$167	74
1205 Phats Way	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-8%)	2mo	$303,000	$168	74
1135 Hannah Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-8%)	4mo	$294,900	$164	74
605 S Nelson St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,972 (+1%)	6mo	$225,000	$114	73
1147 Hannah Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-8%)	3mo	$299,900	$167	72
1155 Hannah Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-8%)	3mo	$309,000	$172	72
627 Stagecoach Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,758 (-10%)	5mo	$270,000	$154	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $149,210
• Equity at exit: $297,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $463,295
• Equity at exit: $641,117

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31632

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,602/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,745

Max offer price $245,459

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-292	-5% $-385	+0% $-479	+5% $-572	+10% $-665
Rent	-10% $-648	-5% $-563	+0% $-479	+5% $-394	+10% $-310
Rate	-1.0pp $-312	-0.5pp $-395	base $-479	+0.5pp $-564	+1.0pp $-651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Barfield St Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,495	$1.10	45d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $330,000 Active
3. 2022-08-07
   price $2,000
4. 2016-08-17
   soldstatus $219,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,602 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,602 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$3,602
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$11,778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,827
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hahira

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #10280

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hahira, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 15,942
• Household income: $83,946
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.44%
• Current HPI: 259.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+50.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $330,000 SGMLS
• 2022-08-07 Price Changed $2,000 RENT.
• 2016-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $219,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,602 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.