9430 Case Rd SW #29 · Tumwater, WA 98512

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 159 Days on market

Built 2022 Est $197k · 7% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and take a look at this 2022 3-bedroom 2 bath home in Olympia at the Tall Firs Park. Open floor plan, huge kitchen with island. Home is turnkey and ready to move in! No age restrictions, pets allowed 2 max, no more than 12" tall and 24lbs max. Park approval is required prior to sale. Shopping and restaurants nearby. Don't miss out on this home! Space rent $800 per month.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Huge kitchen
• Pets allowed

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HUGE KITCHEN
• TURNKEY
• PETS ALLOWED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area: 1512; Structure type: Manufactured house; Levels: One
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: Park approved for sale; Park amenities: common area, playground, recreational area; Number of homes in park: 50; Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Park name: Tall Firs; Bus line nearby; Land lease: $800

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking
• Utilities: Public water (PSE); Electric power (PSE); Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Manufactured after 06/15/1976; Model: 55CR28563BH23; Make: CMH Manufacturing West Inc.; Property condition: Very good; Mobile home remains
• Construction: Cement plank and wood construction; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Tie down foundation
• Exterior features: Cement plank and wood exterior; Corner lot; Has view; Cement planked siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space; Dining room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric energy source
• Interior features: Water heater; Tie-downs
• Laundry & utility: Utility/Laundry room; Electric water heater located in laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.33%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,560
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9430 Case Rd SW #29	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	0mo	$197,000	$130	100
9430 Case Rd SW #68	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+11%)	20mo	$50,000	$30	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,629
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $24,786
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,269 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,762/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,691

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8430 Prine Villa Ln SW Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,895	$1.55	13d	5	1.07mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   price $210,000
3. 2026-01-14
   price $215,000
4. 2025-12-07
   price $220,000
5. 2025-11-21
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,762 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,058 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,762
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,178
• − Management: −$2,178
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $2,190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$526
• After-tax cash flow: $4,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $210,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $215,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $220,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $225,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,762 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.