4909 Puritan Cir #2202 · East Lake-Orient Park, FL 33617

$101,600

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,123 sqft · Condo public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1981 $427/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Short Sale. Investment opportunity! This two bedroom, two bath condo in Puritan Circle is ready for a makeover! This community is guard gated with a beautiful community pool located near Temple Terrace. The home is in need of a complete rehab project but resales in the area for a ground floor 2/2 go for over $200,000. This is priced into consideration due to mold remediation through 3/4 of the property. All buyers and agents are to sign a hold harmless prior to entering the property and wearing a protective mask is recommended.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Guard gated
• $427 HOA

Tags

• GUARD GATED
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMPLETE REHAB PROJECT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $102k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $102k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $702 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $102k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,552 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.66%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-6,627
• Equity at exit: $15,149

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-5,287
• Equity at exit: $8,785

Cash invested: $28,448 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33617

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$533
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$127 /mo · $1,524/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$427
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,429

Max offer price $101,600

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $264	+0% $229	+5% $194	+10% $159
Rent	-10% $93	-5% $161	+0% $229	+5% $297	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $255	base $229	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,400
• Closing costs: $3,048
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5125 Puritan Cir #1103 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1191	$1,850	$1.55	11d	1	0.10mi
4991 Puritan Cir #522 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	906	$1,599	$1.76	25d	1	0.14mi
4418 Porpoise Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	975	$2,100	$2.15	13d	1	0.14mi
7134 N 50th St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	915	$1,650	$1.80	25d	1	0.19mi
5003 Puritan Rd Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	6d	1	0.26mi
7113 N 50th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,050	$1.53	21d	1	0.29mi
4122 Waterside Island Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.40mi
4105 Waterside Island Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$1,995	$1.46	6d	1	0.42mi
4105 Waterside Island Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$2,195	$1.61	25d	1	0.42mi
7402 E Bank Dr #7402 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$2,800	$2.05	25d	1	0.45mi
4113 Gradstone Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$1,590	$1.17	15d	1	0.46mi
4119 Gradstone Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	15d	1	0.46mi
7107 N 53rd St Unit B Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$1,500	$1.76	25d	1	0.50mi
7195 E Bank Dr #206 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	864	$1,700	$1.97	3d	1	0.51mi
7517 Lakeshore Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	710	$1,500	$2.11	25d	1	0.60mi
5013 E Sligh Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–1.5	939	$1,412	$1.50	0d	7	0.60mi
4102 Oak Knoll Ct Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,375	$1.51	4d	56	0.62mi
4102 Oak Knoll Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,550	$1.37	25d	1	0.62mi
4102 Oak Knoll Ct Unit 01 020 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	890	$1,500	$1.69	25d	1	0.62mi
7606 Abbey Ln #208 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,500	$1.60	25d	1	0.63mi
5508 Pokeweed Ct #146 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	783	$1,350	$1.72	13d	1	0.63mi
7505 Pitch Pine Cir #122 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	0.64mi
7506 Presley Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,300	$1.33	25d	1	0.64mi
7510 Presley Pl Unit 98-A Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	783	$1,300	$1.66	3d	1	0.65mi
7607 Abbey Ln Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,500	$1.07	25d	1	0.67mi
7516 Needle Leaf Pl #44 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	0.68mi
5008 Sierra Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,161	$1.48	15d	1	0.68mi
5008 Sierra Pl Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	827	$1,510	$1.83	23d	1	0.68mi
5008 Sierra Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,615	$1.44	21d	1	0.68mi
7506 Needle Leaf Pl #56 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	747	$1,400	$1.87	11d	1	0.69mi
8412 Rio Bravo Ct Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1014	$1,384	$1.36	25d	1	0.69mi
8501 N 50th St Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	730	$1,710	$2.34	25d	1	0.73mi
3826 Lakeshore Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,100	$1.35	25d	1	0.80mi
5659 Del Prado Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1229	$1,550	$1.26	0d	4	0.81mi
7011 San Ramon Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,475	$1.40	14d	5	0.83mi
4207 S Sandalwood Cir Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	840	$1,827	$2.17	25d	1	0.83mi
3906 E Bird St Unit B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,300	$1.60	15d	1	0.83mi
4007 E Pocahontas Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	25d	1	0.85mi
4406 Mango Ter Unit B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,400	$1.67	25d	1	0.88mi
8720 N 48th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,249	$1.25	3d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $427 · $5,124/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-11-04
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-08
   status Active
3. 2025-10-08
   price $101,600
4. 2025-09-15
   status Pending
5. 2025-08-14
   listed $89,900 Active
6. 2001-02-15
   soldstatus $47,000
7. 2001-02-15
   soldstatus $47,000
8. 1984-09-01
   soldstatus $52,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,691
• − Property taxes: −$1,524
• − Insurance: −$508
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − HOA: −$5,124
• − Depreciation: −$2,956
• Taxable income: $1,527
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$366
• After-tax cash flow: $2,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Lake-Orient Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Lake-Orient Park, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 45,396
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,851
• Household income: $50,948
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3295.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 36% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.20%
• Current HPI: 352.4572
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+93.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $101,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1984-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $29 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.