8290 S Smoketree Ln · Willow Valley, AZ 86440

$227,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1979 6,098 sqft lot Est $197k · 16% over $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.5/15.0

Listing remarks

Willow Valley private marina and launch! Club house with lots of fun activities. Lockbox on the fence. Key to gate and house key fits the right hand side. Key to gate also fits the garage pad. Additional sleeping area in he garage. Home was used for vacations. Lots of room to store sand and water toys. Both sides of this home a have covered patios/ carports to protect your sand and water toys from the sun. Conventional, FHA and VA financing

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed; Zoned RMH (Residential Mobile Homes)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $125; Community clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: 220 volt electric service; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($834/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#170 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Colorado River Union High School District (4381) (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #213 of 249 in AZ (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Camp Mohave Elementary School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 375 students, 66% FRL); Mohave Valley Junior High School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 448 students, 55% FRL); River Valley High School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #287 of 381 statewide, top 76%, 545 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $228k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8025 S Green Valley Rd	0.64mi	2/1.0	900 (-6%)	1mo	$132,000	$147	55
8105 S Evergreen Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,025 (+7%)	20mo	$210,000	$205	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $128,222
• Equity at exit: $204,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $373,896
• Equity at exit: $441,982

Cash invested: $63,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86440

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,193
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $656/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,712

Max offer price $227,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $134	+0% $70	+5% $5	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $-2	+0% $70	+5% $141	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $127	base $70	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,875
• Closing costs: $6,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7866 S Meadowlark St Mohave Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	15d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $227,500 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,500 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,500 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,500 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,500 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $227,500 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,500 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $227,500 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,500 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $227,500 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,500 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $227,500 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 79 DOM
18. 2026-04-01
    price $240,000
19. 2026-03-11
    listed $259,900 Active
20. 2025-07-13
    price $299,900
21. 2025-06-14
    listed $324,900 Active
22. 2003-03-14
    soldstatus $73,500
23. 1995-06-09
    soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,502 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$846/yr (+$70/mo · 128.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,744
• − Property taxes: −$656
• − Insurance: −$1,138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$6,618
• Taxable loss: −$3,131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$751
• After-tax cash flow: $1,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colorado River Union High School District (4381)
• NCES district ID: 0400082
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,132
• Composite: 12.72/100
• National rank: #9603
• State rank: #213 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Willow Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #18589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Valley, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 8,403

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.05%
• Current HPI: 322.7772
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+317.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $240,000 WARDEX
• 2026-03-11 Listed $259,900 WARDEX
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $299,900 WARDEX
• 2025-06-14 Listed $324,900 WARDEX
• 2003-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 1995-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $656 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.