7203 Quail Hollow Dr · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$245,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,262 sqft · Townhouse public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2008 $194/sqft · at area comps Est $316k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Positioned in a highly convenient Panama City Beach location, this well-maintained two-story home offers easy access to the Navy Base, local schools, and a quick drive into Saint Andrews for shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Inside, the home features an open-concept layout designed for comfortable living and entertaining, with a seamless flow between the family room, dining area, and kitchen. The main level is finished with LVP & tile flooring, while the kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and quality oak/maple cabinetry. Upstairs, you'll find two spacious primary bedroom suites, offering flexibility and privacy, along with a versatile bo

Key facts

• Oak maple cabinetry
• Granite countertops
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LVP AND TILE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OAK MAPLE CABINETRY
• TWO PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Community clubhouse; Fitness center; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Cable connected; Electricity available; Phone connected; Public sewer
• Home design: HardiPlank-type exterior; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank-type construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Privacy fencing; Storage shed(s); Sprinkler system; In-ground community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Two upstairs bedrooms (13 x 12 and 14 x 13)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Interior steps
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $245k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,678 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,864
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -22.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6422 W Highway 98 #1305	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,384 (+10%)	12mo	$380,000	$275	37
6422 W Highway 98 #1002	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,384 (+10%)	15mo	$410,000	$296	34
6422 Hwy 98 #603	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,384 (+10%)	20mo	$390,000	$282	31
6422 W Highway 98 #1503	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,384 (+10%)	22mo	$463,000	$335	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-33,536
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-24,068
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,017 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,874

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$1,900	$1.34	13d	6	0.24mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	21d	1	0.50mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,940	$1.91	13d	41	0.59mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	21d	1	0.61mi
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	13d	1	0.64mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	21d	1	0.66mi
6422 W Highway 98 #1405 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1384	$3,850	$2.78	21d	1	0.72mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	21d	1	0.95mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	13d	1	0.99mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	13d	1	1.03mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	21d	1	1.05mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	1.10mi
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	21d	1	1.13mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,250	$2.07	13d	18	1.16mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,792	$1.86	13d	12	1.16mi
6625 Harbour Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	21d	1	1.21mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,200	$1.43	13d	2	1.25mi
6588 Harbour Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,760	$1.47	21d	1	1.26mi
6728 Sunrise Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	966	$1,600	$1.66	13d	1	1.28mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	1.29mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	21d	1	1.31mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	13d	1	1.39mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	13d	1	1.40mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	13d	1	1.43mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $245,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    listed $245,000 Active 1708-char remark
19. 2021-12-14
    historical
20. 2021-12-09
    historical
21. 2015-11-04
    soldstatus $127,000
22. 2010-04-07
    soldstatus $1,819,100
23. 2009-12-10
    listed $128,900
24. 2009-12-04
    soldstatus $115,000
25. 2008-09-03
    listed $128,400
26. 2006-10-15
    listed $174,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,125 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$909/yr (+$76/mo · 80.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,936
• − Management: −$1,936
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$2,872
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$689
• After-tax cash flow: $2,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+40.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $245,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2015-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,819,100 Public Records
• 2009-12-10 Listed $128,900 CPARMLS
• 2009-12-04 Sold (MLS) $115,000 CPARMLS
• 2008-09-03 Listed $128,400 CPARMLS
• 2006-10-15 Listed $174,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,125 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.