3736 Lancer Cir · Pearland, TX 77581

$289,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,026 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2019 3,001 sqft lot $143/sqft · 18% below area Est $352k · 18% under $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW HOME FOR THE NEW YEAR! Barely lived in beautiful DR Horton Townhome in centrally located Bakers Landing subdivision. Upgraded finishes throughout including lovely beveled glass front door. Formal entry open to stairway & upstairs game room/loft. Large light kitchen with glass subway tile backsplash, quartz counters, abundant cabinets, & SS upgraded appliances. Oversized island with room for eating. Kitchen & dining open to large living area overlooking back yard and covered patio. Generous half bath is next to living area. Master suite overlooks the back yard with large walk-in closet & master bath with walk-in shower and bench; dual sinks . Game room/loft separates master from secondary bedrooms and laundry. Good sized secondary bedrooms & large secondary bath with dual sinks. Walking trails throughout subdivision with a park and pavilion. Excellent location with convenient access to Hobby Airport & major highways. Pearland ISD schools. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• $100 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2019

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $100 covering common areas; Association: Bakers Landing Comm Assoc

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2 stories; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2019; Brick and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second floor) — 13x14; Bedroom (Second floor) — 11x16; Bedroom (Second floor) — 12x13
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat; Thermostat energy-efficient feature
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in utility room; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-391/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (2.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C J Harris El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 561 students, 53% FRL); Pearland J H East (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,152
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -17.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2505 Kaman Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,811 (-11%)	3mo	$329,000	$182	73
2503 S Houston Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,887 (-7%)	8mo	$446,010	$236	65
2712 Kaman Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,098 (+4%)	10mo	$357,950	$171	65
4505 Brazos Bend Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,900 (-6%)	2mo	$335,000	$176	64
2406 Shelia St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,962 (-3%)	2mo	$329,000	$168	64
2706 Merlin Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,284 (+13%)	2mo	$413,999	$181	60
2321 Pearland Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	2,054 (+1%)	5mo	$200,000	$97	59
4505 Cedar Hill Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,865 (-8%)	6mo	$299,000	$160	56
4713 Cypress Bend Ct	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,239 (+10%)	2mo	$325,000	$145	52
4610 Meridian Park Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,830 (-10%)	7mo	$325,000	$178	51
2502 S San Antonio Ave	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,274 (+12%)	10mo	$365,000	$161	47
3214 Churchill St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,191 (+8%)	10mo	$415,000	$189	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-48,907
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-44,676
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77581

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$726 /mo · $8,708/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$647
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,122

Max offer price $284,143

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $49	+0% $-33	+5% $-115	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-154	+0% $-33	+5% $89	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $41	base $-33	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3803 Lancer Cir Unit 1467759P Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	2034	$3,462	$1.70	0d	1	0.03mi
3222 Maryfield Ln Pearland, TX	4.0	2.5	2504	$2,525	$1.01	0d	1	0.98mi
2112 Stonehollow Ct Pearland, TX	4.0	3.0	2436	$3,200	$1.31	0d	1	0.99mi
3318 Cactus Heights Ln Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	2091	$2,585	$1.24	14d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $289,900 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-05-05
   listed $299,000 Active 825-char remark
8. 2026-05-04
   historical $299,000 825-char remark
9. 2026-04-28
   historical
10. 2026-04-23
    status Active
11. 2026-04-20
    status Pending
12. 2026-04-13
    price $294,999
13. 2026-04-02
    status Active
14. 2026-03-30
    status Pending
15. 2026-03-09
    listed $299,999 Active
16. 2024-02-27
    historical $2,200
17. 2024-02-14
    price $2,200
18. 2024-01-29
    price $2,500
19. 2024-01-10
    listed $2,600
20. 2022-02-09
    soldstatus
21. 2022-02-08
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    NEW HOME FOR THE NEW YEAR! Barely lived in beautiful DR Horton Townhome in centrally located Bakers Landing subdivision. Upgraded finishes throughout including lovely beveled glass front door. Formal entry open to stairway & upstairs game room/loft. Large light kitchen with glass subway tile backsplash, quartz counters, abundant cabinets, & SS upgraded appliances. Oversized island with room for eating. Kitchen & dining open to large living area overlooking back yard and covered patio. Generous half bath is next to living area. Master suite overlooks the back yard with large walk-in closet & master bath with walk-in shower and bench; dual sinks . Game room/loft separates master from secondary bedrooms and laundry. Good sized secondary bedrooms & large secondary bath with dual sinks. Walking trails throughout subdivision with a park and pavilion. Excellent location with convenient access to Hobby Airport & major highways. Pearland ISD schools. Schedule your showing today!

22. 2022-01-21
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    NEW HOME FOR THE NEW YEAR! Barely lived in beautiful DR Horton Townhome in centrally located Bakers Landing subdivision. Upgraded finishes throughout including lovely beveled glass front door. Formal entry open to stairway & upstairs game room/loft. Large light kitchen with glass subway tile backsplash, quartz counters, abundant cabinets, & SS upgraded appliances. Oversized island with room for eating. Kitchen & dining open to large living area overlooking back yard and covered patio. Generous half bath is next to living area. Master suite overlooks the back yard with large walk-in closet & master bath with walk-in shower and bench; dual sinks . Game room/loft separates master from secondary bedrooms and laundry. Good sized secondary bedrooms & large secondary bath with dual sinks. Walking trails throughout subdivision with a park and pavilion. Excellent location with convenient access to Hobby Airport & major highways. Pearland ISD schools. Schedule your showing today!

23. 2022-01-07
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    NEW HOME FOR THE NEW YEAR! Barely lived in beautiful DR Horton Townhome in centrally located Bakers Landing subdivision. Upgraded finishes throughout including lovely beveled glass front door. Formal entry open to stairway & upstairs game room/loft. Large light kitchen with glass subway tile backsplash, quartz counters, abundant cabinets, & SS upgraded appliances. Oversized island with room for eating. Kitchen & dining open to large living area overlooking back yard and covered patio. Generous half bath is next to living area. Master suite overlooks the back yard with large walk-in closet & master bath with walk-in shower and bench; dual sinks . Game room/loft separates master from secondary bedrooms and laundry. Good sized secondary bedrooms & large secondary bath with dual sinks. Walking trails throughout subdivision with a park and pavilion. Excellent location with convenient access to Hobby Airport & major highways. Pearland ISD schools. Schedule your showing today!

24. 2021-11-18
    listed $299,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    NEW HOME FOR THE NEW YEAR! Barely lived in beautiful DR Horton Townhome in centrally located Bakers Landing subdivision. Upgraded finishes throughout including lovely beveled glass front door. Formal entry open to stairway & upstairs game room/loft. Large light kitchen with glass subway tile backsplash, quartz counters, abundant cabinets, & SS upgraded appliances. Oversized island with room for eating. Kitchen & dining open to large living area overlooking back yard and covered patio. Generous half bath is next to living area. Master suite overlooks the back yard with large walk-in closet & master bath with walk-in shower and bench; dual sinks . Game room/loft separates master from secondary bedrooms and laundry. Good sized secondary bedrooms & large secondary bath with dual sinks. Walking trails throughout subdivision with a park and pavilion. Excellent location with convenient access to Hobby Airport & major highways. Pearland ISD schools. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,708 · $726/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,708 · $726/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$8,708
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,958
• − Management: −$2,958
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$4,972
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,193
• After-tax cash flow: $802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearland, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,332
• Household income: $111,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 826.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
• Current HPI: 244.7942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $294,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2024-02-14 Price Changed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2024-01-29 Price Changed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-01-10 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS
• 2022-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-01-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-18 Listed $299,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+82.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,708 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.