6199 Stem Ln · Mount Morris, MI 48458

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 1960 8,276 sqft lot Est $89k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

17 single-family homes located throughout Saginaw, Flint, and Mt. Morris, Michigan being offered as a portfolio package for $1,105,000. Portfolio currently has only 1 vacancy and is producing strong rental income. 13 of the 17 properties are occupied by Section 8 tenants through MSHDA and the Saginaw Housing. Properties included in the portfolio: 3220 Roberts St, Saginaw, MI 3104 Roberts St, Saginaw, MI 905 Pleasant St, Saginaw, MI 1928 Lincoln Ave, Saginaw, MI 1823 Stanley St, Saginaw, MI 1814 Schaefer St, Saginaw, MI 1617 Dillon St, Saginaw, MI 1516 King St, Saginaw, MI 1312 Dillon St, Saginaw, MI 2034 Burr Blvd, Flint, MI 48503 1469 Flamingo Dr, Mt Morris, MI 48458 3732 Providence St, Flint, MI 48503 4621 Warrington Dr, Flint, MI 48504 6199 Stem Ln, Mt Morris, MI 48458 15 Milan Ct, Saginaw, MI 48601 611 S 24th St, Saginaw, MI 48601 6181 Eldon Rd, Mt Morris, MI 48458 Seller prefers to sell the properties as a portfolio package; however, individual property purchases may be considered at different pricing. Additional property details and financial information available upon request. Agent owned.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1960

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $65,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$89,100) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 5.5% in Mount Morris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#357 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Beecher Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #722 of 760 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.33%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5516 Mendel Berger Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,035 (-6%)	9mo	$15,250	$15	62
2303 W Coldwater Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	1mo	$63,000	$63	61
6126 Titan Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,243 (+13%)	2mo	$125,000	$101	59
2232 Douglas Joel Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	7mo	$35,000	$35	57
5444 Mendel Berger Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-9%)	0mo	$42,500	$43	57
6229 Detroit St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-2%)	12mo	$87,000	$81	56
6038 Natchez Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,100 (0%)	14mo	$100,000	$91	52
5454 Kellar Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	984 (-10%)	1mo	$79,500	$81	47
6117 Penwood Rd	0.42mi	2/1.5 (-1)	985 (-10%)	12mo	$79,900	$81	46
1587 Mcalpine Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+9%)	7mo	$155,000	$129	44
6215 David Berger St	0.51mi	3/1.0	952 (-14%)	13mo	$52,500	$55	43
5442 Nasser St	0.57mi	3/1.0	960 (-13%)	13mo	$10,208	$11	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $8,223
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $31,547
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48458

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,308/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $709

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6203 Hilton Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	860	$900	$1.05	43d	1	0.07mi
2216 Obrien Rd Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,000	$0.93	13d	1	0.31mi
6230 Natchez Dr Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,000	$0.94	13d	1	0.64mi
6113 Natchez Dr Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$990	$0.90	43d	1	0.64mi
7028 Rosewood Dr Mt Morris, MI	2.0	1.0	967	$1,020	$1.05	13d	1	0.92mi
5280 Cedar Shores Ct Flint, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1150	$1,148	$1.00	13d	6	1.04mi
1 Sunny Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $65,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,308 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,308 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$2,308
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,725
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$654
• After-tax cash flow: $2,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beecher Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2604500
• Math proficiency: 7% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,719
• Composite: 9.96/100
• National rank: #14685
• State rank: #722 of 760 in MI

Livability — Mount Morris

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #9095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beecher, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 19,519
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 19,519
• Household income: $46,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.45%
• Current HPI: 244.2061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $65,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-10 Listed $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,308 · +101.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.