509 Dolphin Dr · Laguna Beach, FL 32413

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1996 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 2-bathroom beach retreat with no HOA, short-term rentals allowed, and plenty of room for your boat, RV, golf cart, and beach toys. Located in a golf-cart-friendly community on the highly desirable west end of Panama City Beach, this furnished property offers a rare combination of privacy, flexibility, and convenience just minutes from the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Powell. The oversized fenced lot features an expansive gravel parking area, mature shade trees, and space for multiple vehicles making it ideal as a primary residence, vacation home, or income-producing rental property. Inside, you'll find a bright and welcoming layout with spacious living areas, an open kitchen and dinin

Key facts

• Beach retreat
• Oversized fenced lot
• No hoa

Tags

• BEACH RETREAT
• NO HOA
• SHORT-TERM RENTALS ALLOWED
• GOLF-CART-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• OVERSIZED FENCED LOT
• EXPANSIVE GRAVEL PARKING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio/porch deck; RV/boat storage; Fenced yard; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Deck (exterior access)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $245k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 0.9% in Laguna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#283 in FL, #4,522 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1249 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $245k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-18,444
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,527
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32413

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 1249
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,909

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24200 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$3,200	$2.87	13d	170	0.65mi
21101 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$1,956	$1.95	13d	12	1.30mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $245,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$576/yr (+$48/mo · 39.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,354
• − Management: −$2,354
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable income: $1,182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$284
• After-tax cash flow: $4,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Laguna Beach

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #4522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laguna Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,453
• Household income: $80,039
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 531.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 354.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+29.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $245,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $275,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Listed $300,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2017-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-09 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CPARMLS
• 2016-11-01 Listed $85,000 CPARMLS
• 2016-10-31 Sold (MLS) $60,000 CPARMLS
• 2016-08-23 Listed $69,000 CPARMLS
• 2004-11-12 Listed $189,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.