301 S Roberts St · Gilmer, TX 75644

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 580 Days on market

Built 1955 Poor condition 0.47 ac lot $52/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seize the opportunity to build your investment property on this exceptional lot in the highly sought-after area of town . This property consist of a house that can be renovated, or used as the buyers preference. Large lot close to the Highway 271, some trees but it's clear lot. Lot size 0.46 acres.

Key facts

• Exceptional lot
• Clear lot
• 0.47 acre lot

Tags

• EXCEPTIONAL LOT
• HIGHLY SOUGHT-AFTER AREA
• CLEAR LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 2.3% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilmer El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,179 students, 81% FRL); Bruce J H (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 429 students, 78% FRL); Gilmer H S (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 815 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 54% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 580 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 43% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 580 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.04%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,814
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -64.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
603 W Harrison St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,110 (+4%)	10mo	$160,000	$144	54
800 W Butler	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,033 (-3%)	14mo	$155,000	$150	50
107 W Redbud St	0.88mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,025 (-4%)	7mo	$139,500	$136	48
820 Railroad Ave	0.77mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,026 (-4%)	35mo	$53,000	$52	34
120 Highland Forest Dr	0.88mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+14%)	5mo	$164,990	$136	34
910 Success St	1.11mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,323 (+24%)	0mo	$95,000	$72	33
509 Abney St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-10%)	27mo	$170,000	$177	26
709 W Tyler St	0.58mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,305 (+23%)	32mo	$129,900	$100	21
506 Abney St	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,245 (+17%)	33mo	$219,999	$177	15
1100 N Montgomery St	0.95mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (+24%)	35mo	$192,500	$145	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $57,006
• Equity at exit: $49,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.53×
• Total profit: $146,737
• Equity at exit: $106,853

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $169,900 ($134/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +9.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,463/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $548

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $455	-5% $440	+0% $424	+5% $408	+10% $393
Rent	-10% $338	-5% $381	+0% $424	+5% $467	+10% $510
Rate	-1.0pp $452	-0.5pp $438	base $424	+0.5pp $410	+1.0pp $395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Pecan St Unit 8 Gilmer, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$975	$1.11	93d	1	0.76mi
620 Mary St Gilmer, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,200	$0.98	93d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 580 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 579 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $55,000 Active 578 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $55,000 Active 577 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $55,000 Active 576 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $55,000 Active 575 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $55,000 Active 572 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $55,000 Active 571 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $55,000 Active 570 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $55,000 Active 568 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $55,000 Active 566 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $55,000 Active 564 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $55,000 Active 563 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $55,000 Active 562 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $55,000 Active 559 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $55,000 Active 557 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $55,000 Active 556 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $55,000 Active 555 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $55,000 Active 554 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $55,000 Active 553 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $55,000 Active 552 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $55,000 Active 551 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $55,000 Active 550 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 549 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 548 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $55,000 Active 547 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 546 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 545 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 544 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 543 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 542 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 541 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $55,000 Active 540 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $55,000 Active 539 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $55,000 Active 538 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $55,000 Active 537 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $55,000 Active 535 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $55,000 Active 533 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $55,000 Active 532 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $55,000 Active 530 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $55,000 Active 529 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    price $55,000 Active 528 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $65,000 Active 528 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $65,000 Active 527 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $65,000 Active 526 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $65,000 Active 524 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $65,000 Active 523 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $65,000 Active 521 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $65,000 Active 520 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 519 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 43% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,463
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,042
• − Management: −$1,042
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,519
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,085
• After-tax cash flow: $4,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $53,200–$95,760 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and renovations to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant work is needed on the roof, siding, flooring, and landscaping to improve its resale and rental value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $60,000–$180,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — roof appears damaged and missing shingles
• Major Windows (windows) — windows appear broken and missing
• Major Electrical (electrical) — electrical panel appears damaged and missing components
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — plumbing fixtures appear damaged and missing
• Major Exterior (exterior) — exterior siding appears damaged and missing
• Major Other — interior appears in disrepair with missing furniture and debris

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and discoloration
• Major siding — Weathered and peeling paint
• Major flooring — Worn-out and possibly damaged
• Major paint — Peeling and chipped paint on walls and ceiling
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of landscaping
• Major foundation — Structural issues with the foundation and walls

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's curb appeal and overall condition, making it more attractive to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Siding and paint — New siding and repainted walls will enhance the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Resale Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with new, durable material will improve the home's condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value ↑
• Both HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to both buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gilmer El F TX #2,149/4,322 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Bruce J H D- TX #572/1,662 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Gilmer H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilmer, TX
• County: Upshur · 42,771 people
• Metro: Longview, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,785
• Household income: $56,155
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-05 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-04-02 Price Changed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-03 Listed $75,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,463 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.