80 Jimmie Ln · Goodrich, TX 77371

$59,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2012 5,641 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Studio home is small but efficient. Easy maintenance and ready for a new owner.

Key facts

• 5,641 sq ft lot
• Built 2012
• Listed 112 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.8% in Goodrich — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,053 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $505 of equity ($408 loan paydown + $97 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,690 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.37%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $18,337
• Equity at exit: $17,621

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $49,679
• Equity at exit: $21,575

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77371

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $637

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $340	-5% $323	+0% $307	+5% $290	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $266	+0% $307	+5% $347	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $336	-0.5pp $322	base $307	+0.5pp $291	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-02-26
    listed $59,000 Active 84-char remark

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    This Studio home is small but efficient. Easy maintenance and ready for a new owner.

16. 2026-01-01
    historical
17. 2025-05-18
    price $60,000
18. 2025-02-07
    listed $59,000 Active
19. 2025-01-31
    historical
20. 2024-07-04
    listed $59,000 Active
21. 2022-08-04
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2022-07-16
    status Pending
23. 2022-07-12
    listed $41,340 Active
24. 2021-01-04
    historical
25. 2020-12-14
    listed $29,900 Active
26. 2014-12-29
    soldstatus
27. 2014-12-12
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2014-11-24
    status Pending
29. 2014-11-19
    price $5,500
30. 2014-11-08
    price $7,500
31. 2014-11-05
    price $11,900
32. 2014-10-16
    price $12,900
33. 2014-09-23
    price $13,900
34. 2014-09-12
    listed $16,000 Active
35. 2005-01-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $525 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$555/yr (+$46/mo · 105.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$1,798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $2,986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$717
• After-tax cash flow: $2,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shepherd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,857
• Composite: 17.77/100
• National rank: #9016
• State rank: #770 of 826 in TX

Livability — Goodrich

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #18692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Current HPI: 201.6618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+268.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $59,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Price Changed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $59,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-04 Listed $59,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-07-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-12 Listed $41,340 HARMLS
• 2021-01-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-12-14 Listed $29,900 HARMLS
• 2014-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-11-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-11-19 Price Changed $5,500 HARMLS
• 2014-11-08 Price Changed $7,500 HARMLS
• 2014-11-05 Price Changed $11,900 HARMLS
• 2014-10-16 Price Changed $12,900 HARMLS
• 2014-09-23 Price Changed $13,900 HARMLS
• 2014-09-12 Listed $16,000 HARMLS
• 2005-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+27.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $525 · +539.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.