238 Buck Ridge Dr · Beech Mountain Lakes, PA 18222

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1948 $189/sqft · at area comps Est $239k · at est. $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful 3 bedroom and 2 bath ranch home. This home has propane heat, mini split AC, public sewer, public water, full basement, attached garage, rear deck, and is all on one level. This home also features a large master bedroom as well as an attached master bathroom. Come see this beauty today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 28 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#698 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hazleton Area SD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #476 of 539 in PA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Drums El/Ms (math 17% / reading 53%, grade F, #1,042 of 1,518 statewide, top 69%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Hazleton Area Hs (math 53% / reading 8%, grade F, #347 of 437 statewide, top 79%, 3,795 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 60% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $250k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,767 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,433
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 4.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
213 Shingle Mill Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-1%)	9mo	$256,000	$195	68
118 Buck Ridge Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-5%)	18mo	$229,900	$183	64
94 Edge Rock Dr	0.28mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,220 (-8%)	6mo	$185,000	$152	62
158 Buck Ridge Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,388 (+5%)	16mo	$217,000	$156	62
49 Edge Rock Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-9%)	6mo	$210,000	$175	57
106 Randy Ridge Ct	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,475 (+11%)	2mo	$170,000	$115	54
205 Snow Valley Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+15%)	16mo	$250,000	$164	48
209 Bear Run Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,129 (-15%)	1mo	$232,500	$206	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $127,351
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $382,185
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18222

• Home prices YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,867/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,294

Max offer price $225,342

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-69	+0% $-140	+5% $-210	+10% $-281
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-223	+0% $-140	+5% $-56	+10% $28
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-76	base $-140	+0.5pp $-204	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful 3 bedroom and 2 bath ranch home. This home has propane heat, mini split AC, public sewer, public water, full basement, attached garage, rear deck, and is all on one level. This home also features a large master bedroom as well as an attached master bathroom. Come see this beauty today!

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $250,000 Active 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful 3 bedroom and 2 bath ranch home. This home has propane heat, mini split AC, public sewer, public water, full basement, attached garage, rear deck, and is all on one level. This home also features a large master bedroom as well as an attached master bathroom. Come see this beauty today!

3. 2026-01-11
   listed $249,000 Active 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Welcome to this lovely three bedroom ranch home with two car attached garage for sale in Beech Mountain Lake gated community. All appliances included. Open design in living area. The house is 1350 ft. on . 27 acres. Level lot with scenic wooded backyard and deck. Large dry unfinished basement. Motivated seller. HOA fees $1260 a year. Taxes $2500. Reduce price at $349,000. Call 570.233.5165 for your tour today.

4. 2005-12-19
   soldstatus $115,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,867 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,408 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$542/yr (+$45/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,867
• − Insurance: −$2,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
• − Management: −$2,033
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,428
• After-tax cash flow: $-247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazleton Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211700
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,247
• Composite: 20.44/100
• National rank: #8582
• State rank: #476 of 539 in PA

Livability — Beech Mountain Lakes

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #6837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beech Mountain Lakes, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,946

Population outlook (Luzerne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,505 people
• By 2030: 319,943 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 322,643 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 330,817 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 379,145 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 431,908 · +35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Luzerne

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 40.0% · R 59.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.01%
• Current HPI: 302.4923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+115.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — LCAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $250,000 LCAR
• 2026-01-11 Listed $249,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2005-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $115,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,867 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.