43 Adobe Dr · Shirley, NY 11967

$375,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1985 9,148 sqft lot Est $617k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CASH ONLY!! Discover the potential of this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home at 43 Adobe Dr. Situated in a quiet neighborhood, this property offers a spacious layout and great bones, ready for your personal touch. With a little TLC, it’s an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers or savvy investors. The large backyard provides plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near local amenities, parks, and beaches. Don’t miss out on this affordable home with endless possibilities!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Local amenities
• Beaches

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• PARKS
• BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $375k).
• Recommended offer: $364k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.8% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Floyd Elementary School (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C-, #1,047 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 742 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,053 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $375k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $363,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.30%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $617,188
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Amarr Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,309 (+7%)	1mo	$660,000	$286	73
45 Lama Dr	0.11mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,200 (+2%)	13mo	$640,000	$291	72
55 Lama Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,998 (-7%)	8mo	$615,000	$308	71
70 Breston Dr E	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-5%)	0mo	$628,000	$308	69
72 Propose Rd	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,300 (+7%)	7mo	$539,500	$235	66
118 Lexington Rd	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,137 (-1%)	4mo	$540,000	$253	60
272 Floyd Rd	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,146 (-1%)	12mo	$525,000	$245	59
39 Appel Dr E	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (-10%)	0mo	$665,000	$341	57
18 Windus Dr	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,990 (-8%)	2mo	$537,000	$270	56
45 Arrowhead Dr	0.56mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,112 (-2%)	5mo	$600,000	$284	55
63 Linden Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,171 (+1%)	11mo	$600,000	$276	54
15 Pondview Cir	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,186 (+1%)	12mo	$675,000	$309	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $8,205
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $97,109
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$1,014 /mo · $12,166/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,120
• Net cashflow: $1,076

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,970

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,289	-5% $1,183	+0% $1,076	+5% $970	+10% $864
Rent	-10% $655	-5% $866	+0% $1,076	+5% $1,287	+10% $1,498
Rate	-1.0pp $1,265	-0.5pp $1,172	base $1,076	+0.5pp $979	+1.0pp $880

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	0d	1	1.15mi
357 Smith Rd Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,500	$3.25	4d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-03-05
   status Pending
2. 2025-01-07
   listed $375,000 Active
3. 1998-12-14
   soldstatus $105,000
4. 1986-10-10
   soldstatus $100,000
5. 1985-12-31
   soldstatus $18,000
6. 1985-11-18
   soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,166 · $1,014/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,166 · $1,014/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$12,166
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,120
• − Management: −$5,120
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable income: $7,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,872
• After-tax cash flow: $11,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3847.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Listed $375,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1985-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1985-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,166 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.