1008 Roughlock Ln · Spearfish, SD 57717

$130,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · Manufactured public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1996 $89/sqft · 54% above area Est $96k · 35% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1008 Roughlock Lane! This home is ready for its new owner. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, it’s located in the Mountain Shadow Estates of Spearfish, SD. Enjoy living in a peaceful setting while still being close to everything Spearfish has to offer. Call today to tour this home! Listed by Wesley Allen [phone] Keller Williams Realty Black Hills.

Key facts

• Built 1996
• Listed 157 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $765 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.2% in Spearfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#83 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Spearfish School District 40-2 (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #32 of 59 in SD (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 217 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.23%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,195
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: 35.14%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1012 Roughlock Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,466 (+0%)	2mo	$165,000	$113	88
1109 Crow Peak Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	6mo	$100,000	$71	79
328 Terry Peak Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	14mo	$110,000	$78	69
1019 Roughlock Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-6%)	11mo	$148,950	$109	69
1107 Crow Peak Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	21mo	$139,000	$103	60
1223 Terry Peak Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-11%)	9mo	$97,000	$75	58
1208 Terry Peak Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	24mo	$154,000	$98	56
1208 Foothills Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-12%)	14mo	$95,000	$74	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $27,652
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $86,751
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57717

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $946/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $765

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,031

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2949 Aspen Dr Spearfish, SD	2.0	1.5	1600	$2,000	$1.25	43d	2	1.06mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $130,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Welcome to 1008 Roughlock Lane! This home is ready for its new owner. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, it’s located in the Mountain Shadow Estates of Spearfish, SD. Enjoy living in a peaceful setting while still being close to everything Spearfish has to offer. Call today to tour this home! Listed by Wesley Allen [phone] Keller Williams Realty Black Hills.

18. 2026-04-09
    price $140,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Welcome to 1008 Roughlock Lane! This home is ready for its new owner. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, it’s located in the Mountain Shadow Estates of Spearfish, SD. Enjoy living in a peaceful setting while still being close to everything Spearfish has to offer. Call today to tour this home! Listed by Wesley Allen [phone] Keller Williams Realty Black Hills.

19. 2026-01-12
    listed $150,000 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Welcome to 1008 Roughlock Lane! This home is ready for its new owner. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, it’s located in the Mountain Shadow Estates of Spearfish, SD. Enjoy living in a peaceful setting while still being close to everything Spearfish has to offer. Call today to tour this home! Listed by Wesley Allen [phone] Keller Williams Realty Black Hills.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $946 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,703 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$757/yr (+$63/mo · 80.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$946
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $7,500
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,800
• After-tax cash flow: $7,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spearfish School District 40-2
• NCES district ID: 4666930
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,524
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3199
• State rank: #32 of 59 in SD

Livability — Spearfish

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #9525

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spearfish, SD
• City population: 17,248
• Population (ZIP): 8,711

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,092 people
• By 2030: 28,137 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 29,908 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 31,789 · +17.3%
• By 2075: 38,917 · +43.6%
• By 2100: 50,407 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Italian 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.3) · D 32.9% · R 64.3% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.4pp · 2024: -31.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.3 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.94%
• Current HPI: 173.8029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $130,000 MRAOR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $140,000 MRAOR
• 2026-01-12 Listed $150,000 MRAOR

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $946 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.