8615 Gandy Ln · Bayonet Point, FL 34668

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1980 5,280 sqft lot Est $258k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss your chance to see this one! This split plan home is beautiful inside and out. Walk in closet, separate living room and family room. Roomy 2 car garage with built-in storage. Fenced backyard, sprinkler on well with timer and much more. Home is being sold as is for seller's convenience. Bring offers seller is motivated!

Key facts

• Double closets
• Patio area
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• PATIO AREA
• PORCELAIN TILE FLOORING
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• FLEX ROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• DOUBLE CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R4
• Financial info: Homestead exemption applied
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces northeast
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area (living area source: public records)
• Exterior features: Asphalt road frontage; Lot approximately 0.12 acres; No waterfront or water access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas/standard range not specified
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; Private mailbox; Irrigation equipment
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-235/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Schrader Elementary School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,656 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 601 students, 82% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 48% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,855/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 2699% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $250k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,470 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,632
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11614 Bee Hive Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+5%)	2mo	$298,900	$214	77
11443 Nature Trl	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+6%)	0mo	$230,000	$163	75
11653 Orleans Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,290 (-3%)	4mo	$249,900	$194	75
8812 Honeycomb Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+8%)	4mo	$282,500	$197	71
11525 Forest Run Ct	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,274 (-4%)	2mo	$225,000	$177	65
8026 Hunters Whip Row Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-2%)	1mo	$270,000	$206	62
7901 Bell Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (-1%)	0mo	$240,000	$183	58
8034 Merrimac Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-5%)	3mo	$260,000	$206	56
11201 Island Pine Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+11%)	2mo	$260,000	$177	54
11238 Owl Ln	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,169 (-12%)	1mo	$281,000	$240	50
8210 Woodsong Row	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-10%)	2mo	$228,000	$190	47
8204 Heartwood Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+14%)	1mo	$270,000	$178	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-45,018
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-53,807
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 577
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,855 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $842/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $246,442

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	3d	10	0.52mi
12215 Meadowbrook Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	24d	1	0.62mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	18d	1	0.62mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	12d	1	0.67mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	22d	1	0.69mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	5d	1	0.69mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	24d	1	0.75mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	11d	1	0.75mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	0.75mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	12d	1	0.76mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	24d	1	0.78mi
11902 Oceanside Dr Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	3d	1	0.86mi
12213 Saddle Strap Row Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,990	$1.18	18d	1	0.87mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,811	$1.61	5d	1	0.88mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	0.88mi
9444 Bourbon St Unit 12 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,875	$1.63	24d	1	0.88mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	3d	1	0.93mi
7730 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,850	$1.04	24d	1	0.98mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	18d	1	0.98mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	24d	1	0.98mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	24d	1	0.98mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	24d	1	1.02mi
8015 San Fernando Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$2,400	$1.57	24d	1	1.05mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	24d	1	1.05mi
7835 Arbordale Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1661	$1,850	$1.11	24d	1	1.06mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	5d	1	1.07mi
7804 Birchwood Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,750	$1.16	24d	1	1.11mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	1.12mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	1.12mi
8024 Las Cruces Ct Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1371	$1,900	$1.39	24d	1	1.13mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	24d	1	1.13mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	24d	1	1.15mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	24d	1	1.15mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	1.15mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	1.17mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.17mi
10816 Piccadilly Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,550	$1.10	12d	1	1.17mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	5d	1	1.21mi
10801 Oldham Rd Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,500	$1.27	2d	1	1.24mi
10802 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	24d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $249,900 Active
3. 2005-03-10
   soldstatus $127,000
4. 2005-03-09
   soldstatus $127,000 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Don't miss your chance to see this one! This split plan home is beautiful inside and out. Walk in closet, separate living room and family room. Roomy 2 car garage with built-in storage. Fenced backyard, sprinkler on well with timer and much more. Home is being sold as is for seller's convenience. Bring offers seller is motivated!

5. 2005-01-14
   listed $129,000 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Don't miss your chance to see this one! This split plan home is beautiful inside and out. Walk in closet, separate living room and family room. Roomy 2 car garage with built-in storage. Fenced backyard, sprinkler on well with timer and much more. Home is being sold as is for seller's convenience. Bring offers seller is motivated!

6. 2003-06-12
   soldstatus $87,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $842 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,232/yr (+$103/mo · 146.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$842
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+185.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-09 Sold (MLS) $127,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-14 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $842 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.