404 N 12th Ave · Hopewell, VA 23860

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1918 5,100 sqft lot $130/sqft · 27% below area Est $160k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming bungalow-style ranch in Hopewell offering 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and approximately 900 finished square feet. Property features a covered front porch, updated flooring/kitchen improvements from prior ownership, central HVAC, and public water/sewer. Home is being sold strictly AS-IS and will require repairs and updates. Reported issues include foundation/crawlspace concerns, water intrusion, electrical panel/meter deficiencies, HVAC/duct repairs, damaged flooring, chimney/fireplace deficiencies, plumbing insulation concerns, and other deferred maintenance items. Ideal opportunity for experienced investors, rehabbers, or buyers utilizing renovation financing. Cash, hard money, or re

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Central hvac
• Public sewer

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UPDATED FLOORING
• KITCHEN IMPROVEMENTS
• CENTRAL HVAC
• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R3

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding and drywall; Asphalt roof; Built (actual year not specified)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.2% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#224 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hopewell City Public School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #129 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42 units permitted in Hopewell city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hopewell County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,341 (2.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,251
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -22.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 N 12th Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	904 (-6%)	0mo	$100,000	$111	90
213 N 14th Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,012 (+5%)	1mo	$139,900	$138	83
113 S 13th Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	882 (-8%)	5mo	$133,000	$151	67
126 S 11th Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,029 (+7%)	3mo	$159,000	$155	65
2202 Lee St	0.60mi	2/1.0	947 (-2%)	8mo	$129,900	$137	63
408 N 8th Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+10%)	8mo	$199,999	$188	62
208 S 12th Ave Unit A	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	920 (-5%)	7mo	$195,000	$212	62
110 S 16th Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+8%)	7mo	$178,000	$171	61
207 N 7th Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	862 (-11%)	7mo	$177,000	$205	58
102 S 5th Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-10%)	1mo	$190,000	$220	57
306 N 4th Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,089 (+13%)	0mo	$152,200	$140	55
208 S 12th Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,093 (+13%)	6mo	$170,000	$156	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,055
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $31,983
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23860

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,223 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,851/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,090

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $141	+0% $105	+5% $70	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $9	-5% $57	+0% $105	+5% $154	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $137	base $105	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1201 W City Point Rd Apt 204 Hopewell, VA	1.0	1.0	641	$1,225	$1.91	24d	1	0.20mi
1201 W City Point Rd Hopewell, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	711	$1,250	$1.76	2d	7	0.20mi
1201 W City Point Rd Hopewell, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	710	$1,250	$1.76	15d	3	0.20mi
2009 Day St Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$895	$1.15	24d	1	0.38mi
310 Woodbine St Hopewell, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	800	$1,334	$1.67	2d	3	0.43mi
101 S Main St Unit 1 Hopewell, VA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	5d	1	0.63mi
311 E Cawson St Hopewell, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0	978	$1,087	$1.11	2d	9	0.76mi
800 Chestnut St Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,395	$1.58	44d	1	0.77mi
600 Winston Churchill Dr Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	2d	1	1.01mi
2305 Poplar St Unit B Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.5	959	$1,050	$1.09	24d	1	1.06mi
507 Hill Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	932	$1,395	$1.50	24d	1	1.07mi
708 Crestline Blvd Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.0	672	$841	$1.25	15d	1	1.09mi
1206 Tabb Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	974	$1,470	$1.51	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $124,900 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $124,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-05-12
   listed $124,900 Active 903-char remark
7. 2026-02-13
   price $139,900
8. 2024-07-30
   soldstatus $215,000
9. 2022-03-24
   soldstatus $47,000
10. 1992-06-01
    soldstatus $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,851 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,851 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 41% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,851
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,174
• − Management: −$1,174
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$186
• After-tax cash flow: $1,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopewell City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101980
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -54.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $38,234
• Composite: 29.95/100
• National rank: #6377
• State rank: #129 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hopewell

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #7437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hopewell, VA
• County: Hopewell City · 31,404 people
• City population: 31,404
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 31,404
• Household income: $62,141
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1055.0

Population outlook (Hopewell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,776 people
• By 2030: 21,457 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 20,882 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 20,239 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 18,905 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -22.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 42% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopewell

• 2024 margin: D (+13.8) · D 56.4% · R 42.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.8pp toward D · 2008: 11.9pp · 2024: 13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.8 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+9.3 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+11.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.28%
• Current HPI: 302.6343
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.86%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+344.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Sold (MLS) $100,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-06-06 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $124,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $139,900 CBRAR
• 2024-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1992-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,851 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.