7595 Oak Forest Rd · Keystone Heights, FL 32656

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 108 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1999 0.37 ac lot Est $191k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very affordable, very nice mobile home with a new roof!!!!! Along with a new roof, this home has a new A/C system, new vinyl plank flooring throughout, new stainless appliances, Enjoy a nice covered front porch and large open rear deck, perfect for grilling and chilling!!!!! New paint inside and out makes this one move in ready!!!!!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Separate shower
• Open rear deck

Tags

• MODERN INTERIOR PAINT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN REAR DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fenced (other); Lot approximately 0.37 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Deck; Front porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (35.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mcrae Elementary School (math 66% / reading 58%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 536 students, 100% FRL); Keystone Heights Junior/Senior High (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,205 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $200k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,975 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.08%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,624
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7556 Monongahela Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	6mo	$206,000	$153	73
5827 Hillridge Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+5%)	6mo	$200,000	$148	65
5742 Overlook Dr W	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+9%)	14mo	$193,000	$137	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-53,465
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-73,672
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32656

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,608/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,708

Max offer price $141,597

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-217	-5% $-274	+0% $-331	+5% $-387	+10% $-444
Rent	-10% $-432	-5% $-382	+0% $-331	+5% $-280	+10% $-229
Rate	-1.0pp $-230	-0.5pp $-280	base $-331	+0.5pp $-382	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7559 Monongahela Ave Keystone Heights, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,675	$1.45	10d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,999 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,999 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,999 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-02-27
    listed $199,999 Active
12. 2020-08-28
    soldstatus $119,900 Sold 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Very affordable, very nice mobile home with a new roof!!!!! Along with a new roof, this home has a new A/C system, new vinyl plank flooring throughout, new stainless appliances, Enjoy a nice covered front porch and large open rear deck, perfect for grilling and chilling!!!!! New paint inside and out makes this one move in ready!!!!!

13. 2020-07-06
    status Pending 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Very affordable, very nice mobile home with a new roof!!!!! Along with a new roof, this home has a new A/C system, new vinyl plank flooring throughout, new stainless appliances, Enjoy a nice covered front porch and large open rear deck, perfect for grilling and chilling!!!!! New paint inside and out makes this one move in ready!!!!!

14. 2020-06-30
    listed $119,900 Active 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Very affordable, very nice mobile home with a new roof!!!!! Along with a new roof, this home has a new A/C system, new vinyl plank flooring throughout, new stainless appliances, Enjoy a nice covered front porch and large open rear deck, perfect for grilling and chilling!!!!! New paint inside and out makes this one move in ready!!!!!

15. 2005-03-17
    soldstatus $66,500
16. 1999-03-02
    soldstatus $22,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,608 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,608 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,608
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$7,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,831
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,630

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.65%
• Current HPI: 344.7744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+798.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $199,999 realMLS
• 2020-08-28 Sold (MLS) $119,900 realMLS
• 2020-07-06 Pending — realMLS
• 2020-06-30 Listed $119,900 realMLS
• 2005-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records
• 1999-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $22,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,608 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.