865 Thomas Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,168 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1900 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Meticulously well-maintained property, fully renovated- new floor tiles, new carpet, new kitchen cabinets & counter tops, newer windows and a very large 2.5 car garage.

Key facts

• Ductwork
• New furnace
• Flexible space

Tags

• NEW FURNACE
• DUCTWORK
• 3RD NON-CONFORMING ROOM
• FLEXIBLE SPACE
• LOCAL SHOPS
• RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Two total residential units (one 2-bed/1-bath unit ~846 sq ft; one 2-bed/1-bath unit ~796 sq ft); Appliances in each unit: washer, dryer, range, refrigerator; Neighborhood number 102
• Financial info: FHA mortgage type indicated; Owner pays fuel and trash collection for the property; Tenant(s) also responsible for fuel and trash collection
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage (27 ft x 26 ft) with 7 ft high door and 16 ft wide opening
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Xcel Energy power; Natural gas fuel
• Home design: Duplex (up and down); Two stories; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,642; Below-grade area approximately 1,068
• Construction: Stone foundation; Roof older than 8 years
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Wood fencing; City street frontage; Public transit within six blocks; Light tree coverage

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes a range and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total (two in each unit)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (one full bath in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Hot water heating; No built-in cooling
• Interior features: Full unfinished basement; Two-level layout; Owner-occupied residential income duplex
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer and dryer (each unit)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,469/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $300k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.48%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,614
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $49,991
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,469 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,714/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$728
• Net cashflow: $733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,541

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 74%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,468
Total (2 units)			$3,469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Western Ave N Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$3,700	$3.53	2d	23	1.25mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $299,900 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Contingent - Inspection 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,900 Contingent - Inspection 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,900 Contingent - Inspection 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,900 Contingent - Inspection 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $299,900 Contingent - Inspection 4 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-05-28
   listed $299,900 Active
9. 2016-01-05
   soldstatus $139,000 Sold 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Meticulously well-maintained property, fully renovated- new floor tiles, new carpet, new kitchen cabinets & counter tops, newer windows and a very large 2.5 car garage.

10. 2015-11-17
    historical Contingent - Inspection 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Meticulously well-maintained property, fully renovated- new floor tiles, new carpet, new kitchen cabinets & counter tops, newer windows and a very large 2.5 car garage.

11. 2015-11-16
    status Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Meticulously well-maintained property, fully renovated- new floor tiles, new carpet, new kitchen cabinets & counter tops, newer windows and a very large 2.5 car garage.

12. 2015-11-09
    historical Contingent - Inspection 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Meticulously well-maintained property, fully renovated- new floor tiles, new carpet, new kitchen cabinets & counter tops, newer windows and a very large 2.5 car garage.

13. 2015-10-30
    price $149,900 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Meticulously well-maintained property, fully renovated- new floor tiles, new carpet, new kitchen cabinets & counter tops, newer windows and a very large 2.5 car garage.

14. 2015-10-12
    listed $159,900 Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Meticulously well-maintained property, fully renovated- new floor tiles, new carpet, new kitchen cabinets & counter tops, newer windows and a very large 2.5 car garage.

15. 2004-03-23
    soldstatus $479,900
16. 1995-04-03
    soldstatus $44,000
17. 1995-02-23
    soldstatus $44,000
18. 1995-02-02
    historical
19. 1994-04-29
    listed $49,900
20. 1992-11-15
    historical
21. 1992-07-15
    listed $51,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,714 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,714 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,714
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,330
• − Management: −$3,330
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $4,231
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,015
• After-tax cash flow: $7,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+477.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $299,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-05 Sold (MLS) $139,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-16 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-09 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-30 Price Changed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-12 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $479,900 Public Records
• 1995-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1995-02-23 Sold (MLS) $44,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-02-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-04-29 Listed $49,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-11-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-07-15 Listed $51,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,714 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.