Orchard Plan · Godley, TX 76044

$311,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,001 sqft · SingleFamily · 491 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Orchard's smart design features include some of the most sought after must haves in your new home, including an open kitchen with an island overlooking the gathering and dining areas. A jack-n-jill style bath connects the secondary bedrooms, perfect for siblings getting ready in the morning. Storage closets throughout the home will help you stay organized and clutter-free.

Key facts

• Storage closets
• Open kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• ISLAND OVERLOOKING GATHERING
• JACK-N-JILL STYLE BATH
• STORAGE CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $311,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $331,287.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Godley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 649 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 491 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,967 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 491 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,287
• List price: $311,990
• Delta: -5.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
448 Avian Way	0.07mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,952 (-2%)	5mo	$319,990	$164	80
1010 Stockton Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,041 (+2%)	1mo	$319,900	$157	77
432 Avian Way	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (-10%)	3mo	$299,990	$167	71
1027 Stockton Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,859 (-7%)	2mo	$315,000	$169	71
592 Highview Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,843 (-8%)	1mo	$360,000	$195	68
1160 Country Glen Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,848 (-8%)	0mo	$324,900	$176	66
568 Highview Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,713 (-14%)	2mo	$360,000	$210	57
412 N Pearson St	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,206 (+10%)	0mo	$394,900	$179	56
517 Highview Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,798 (-10%)	3mo	$335,000	$186	55
1261 Grand Meadows Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,840 (-8%)	1mo	$346,000	$188	52
1156 Goldenrod Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,711 (-14%)	6mo	$235,000	$137	50
1028 Hickory Chase Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,253 (+13%)	3mo	$380,000	$169	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-75,198
• Equity at exit: $49,396

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-93,083
• Equity at exit: $28,644

Cash invested: $92,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 76 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.8 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $367,445 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 269 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,470 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,737
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$414 /mo · $4,969/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,898

Max offer price $282,320

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-224	+0% $-338	+5% $-453	+10% $-567
Rent	-10% $-534	-5% $-436	+0% $-338	+5% $-241	+10% $-143
Rate	-1.0pp $-172	-0.5pp $-254	base $-338	+0.5pp $-424	+1.0pp $-512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,822
• Closing costs: $9,939
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	66d	1	0.45mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	60d	1	0.45mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	59d	1	0.48mi
676 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,450	$1.06	0d	1	0.51mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	93d	1	0.56mi
640 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$2,325	$1.01	0d	1	0.56mi
9508 Ocelot Ct Godley, TX	4.0	3.0	2586	$2,520	$0.97	2d	1	0.97mi
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	93d	1	1.22mi
620 E Godley Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,295	$1.34	0d	1	1.26mi
8200 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	2116	$2,495	$1.18	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $311,990 Active 491 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $311,990 Active 489 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $311,990 Active 488 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $311,990 Active 487 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $311,990 Active 486 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $311,990 Active 483 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $311,990 Active 482 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $311,990 Active 481 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $311,990 Active 480 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $311,990 Active 478 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $311,990 Active 476 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $311,990 Active 475 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $311,990 Active 474 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $311,990 Active 473 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $311,990 Active 472 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $311,990 Active 470 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $311,990 Active 469 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $311,990 Active 468 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $311,990 Active 467 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $311,990 Active 466 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $311,990 Active 465 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $311,990 Active 464 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $311,990 Active 463 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $311,990 Active 462 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $311,990 Active 461 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $311,990 Active 459 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $311,990 Active 458 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $311,990 Active 457 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $311,990 Active 456 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $311,990 Active 455 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $311,990 Active 454 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $311,990 Active 453 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $311,990 Active 452 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $311,990 Active 451 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $311,990 Active 450 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $311,990 Active 449 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $311,990 Active 448 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $311,990 Active 446 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $311,990 Active 444 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $311,990 Active 443 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $311,990 Active 440 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $311,990 Active 439 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $311,990 Active 438 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $311,990 Active 437 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $311,990 Active 435 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $311,990 Active 434 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $311,990 Active 431 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $311,990 Active 430 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $311,990 Active 429 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $311,990 Active 426 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,557
• − Property taxes: −$4,969
• − Insurance: −$1,656
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,371
• − Management: −$2,371
• − Depreciation: −$9,637
• Taxable loss: −$9,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,382
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes and improves functionality ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godley El Middle Godley Middle High Godley H S F TX #859/1,632 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Godley, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,759
• Household income: $103,795
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-31 Price Changed $311,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-05 Listed $331,990 Zillow