2415 San Gabriel Dr · Canyon Creek, TX 76048

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2021 1,742 sqft lot Est $273k · 8% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This brand-new home is perfect for nearly any buyer or investor. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 car garages. 9 ft high ceilings and low E insulated glass windows with screens. LVP flooring, recessed lighting, 50-gallon electric water heater, microwave; electric range, energy-efficient dishwasher, and Granite countertops. This home is in the sought-after Canyon Creek subdivision with the security of a guarded gate. Enjoy the community dock, boat ramp, two pools, tennis courts, close to downtown, playgrounds and so much more. To be completed by Thanksgiving. Come see it now. * * * Photos are from the similar house we recently built. Actual photos will be posted upon completion.

Key facts

• 1,742 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property treated as residential single family; Possession at closing/funding; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: Accepted financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA; Second mortgage: No
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Canyon Creek POA); Association fee $150 semi-annually; Association fee includes management fees; HOA management phone: [phone]

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Garage present (attached)
• Security: Other security features
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available; Municipal utility district not in effect
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Built in 2021; Not attached to another property; Subdivision: Canyon Creek III
• Construction: Year built 2021
• Exterior features: Lot smaller than 0.5 acre; Curbs

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer specifics not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-244/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Canyon Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,102 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mambrino School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 886 students, 53% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 930 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,713 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.35%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,916
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5506 Firewood Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	0mo	$249,900	$149	72
5104 Waterbury Ct	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+12%)	1mo	$299,500	$167	69
2316 Neches St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+2%)	1mo	$250,000	$153	68
2217 Forest Hill Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+1%)	0mo	$310,000	$191	67
5637 Mesa Loop	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,389 (-13%)	1mo	$225,000	$162	66
4720 Medina St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,601 (+0%)	2mo	$279,900	$175	64
5622 Mesa Loop	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,795 (+12%)	0mo	$285,000	$159	64
3023 Steepleridge Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+5%)	1mo	$285,000	$170	59
6106 Moose Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,671 (+5%)	1mo	$350,000	$209	57
2418 Beverly Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,741 (+9%)	1mo	$299,900	$172	56
2316 Forest Hill Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,769 (+11%)	1mo	$320,000	$181	48
4915 Wichita St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (+10%)	2mo	$299,500	$171	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-45,780
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-57,287
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 930
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,229/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,163

Max offer price $246,303

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $50	+0% $-20	+5% $-91	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-105	+0% $-20	+5% $64	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $43	base $-20	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5105 Waterbury Ct Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,300	$1.33	26d	1	0.14mi
2500 Houston Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1770	$2,400	$1.36	6d	1	0.22mi
2524 Creek Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,150	$1.33	1d	1	0.31mi
2524 Creek Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,150	$1.33	4d	1	0.31mi
5619 Cold Water Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,090	$1.16	45d	1	0.42mi
5522 Firewood Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,400	$1.67	45d	1	0.49mi
2213 Beverly Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,300	$1.24	26d	1	0.57mi
5621 San Jacinto Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,100	$1.42	9d	1	0.63mi
2414 Forest Hill Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,150	$1.44	5d	1	0.65mi
2700 Steepleridge Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	9d	1	0.65mi
5718 Barkridge Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,070	$1.43	1d	1	0.65mi
4710 Llano St Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	45d	1	0.72mi
3705 Mandy Dr #2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,400	$1.21	26d	1	1.41mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	24d	1	1.42mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 1 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,300	$1.17	20d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectriclandscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $259,900 Active
16. 2025-08-07
    historical $1,495
17. 2025-07-17
    listed $1,495
18. 2025-04-04
    historical $1,785
19. 2025-03-28
    price $1,785
20. 2025-03-21
    price $1,799
21. 2025-03-10
    price $1,815
22. 2025-03-06
    listed $1,835
23. 2025-02-08
    historical $1,835
24. 2025-01-23
    listed $1,835
25. 2024-01-24
    historical $1,785
26. 2024-01-21
    historical $1,785
27. 2024-01-20
    price $1,785
28. 2024-01-18
    price $1,785
29. 2024-01-12
    price $1,805
30. 2024-01-10
    price $1,805
31. 2024-01-07
    price $1,825
32. 2024-01-07
    price $1,845
33. 2024-01-06
    price $1,825
34. 2024-01-05
    price $1,845
35. 2023-12-20
    price $1,865
36. 2023-12-19
    price $1,865
37. 2023-12-15
    listed $1,895
38. 2023-12-14
    listed $1,895
39. 2022-04-08
    price $1,695
40. 2021-12-21
    soldstatus
41. 2021-12-16
    soldstatus Sold 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    This brand-new home is perfect for nearly any buyer or investor. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 car garages. 9 ft high ceilings and low E insulated glass windows with screens. LVP flooring, recessed lighting, 50-gallon electric water heater, microwave; electric range, energy-efficient dishwasher, and Granite countertops. This home is in the sought-after Canyon Creek subdivision with the security of a guarded gate. Enjoy the community dock, boat ramp, two pools, tennis courts, close to downtown, playgrounds and so much more. To be completed by Thanksgiving. Come see it now. * * * Photos are from the similar house we recently built. Actual photos will be posted upon completion.

42. 2021-12-14
    status Pending 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    This brand-new home is perfect for nearly any buyer or investor. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 car garages. 9 ft high ceilings and low E insulated glass windows with screens. LVP flooring, recessed lighting, 50-gallon electric water heater, microwave; electric range, energy-efficient dishwasher, and Granite countertops. This home is in the sought-after Canyon Creek subdivision with the security of a guarded gate. Enjoy the community dock, boat ramp, two pools, tennis courts, close to downtown, playgrounds and so much more. To be completed by Thanksgiving. Come see it now. * * * Photos are from the similar house we recently built. Actual photos will be posted upon completion.

43. 2021-11-22
    historical Active Option Contract 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    This brand-new home is perfect for nearly any buyer or investor. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 car garages. 9 ft high ceilings and low E insulated glass windows with screens. LVP flooring, recessed lighting, 50-gallon electric water heater, microwave; electric range, energy-efficient dishwasher, and Granite countertops. This home is in the sought-after Canyon Creek subdivision with the security of a guarded gate. Enjoy the community dock, boat ramp, two pools, tennis courts, close to downtown, playgrounds and so much more. To be completed by Thanksgiving. Come see it now. * * * Photos are from the similar house we recently built. Actual photos will be posted upon completion.

44. 2021-11-05
    listed $265,000 Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    This brand-new home is perfect for nearly any buyer or investor. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 car garages. 9 ft high ceilings and low E insulated glass windows with screens. LVP flooring, recessed lighting, 50-gallon electric water heater, microwave; electric range, energy-efficient dishwasher, and Granite countertops. This home is in the sought-after Canyon Creek subdivision with the security of a guarded gate. Enjoy the community dock, boat ramp, two pools, tennis courts, close to downtown, playgrounds and so much more. To be completed by Thanksgiving. Come see it now. * * * Photos are from the similar house we recently built. Actual photos will be posted upon completion.

45. 2021-05-03
    soldstatus
46. 1983-09-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,229 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,344/yr (+$112/mo · 41.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,229
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,081
• After-tax cash flow: $837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #19485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Creek, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $259,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-07 Rental Removed $1,495 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-07-17 Listed for Rent $1,495 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-04-04 Rental Removed $1,785 RENT.
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $1,785 RENT.
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $1,799 RENT.
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $1,815 RENT.
• 2025-03-06 Listed for Rent $1,835 RENT.
• 2025-02-08 Rental Removed $1,835 RENT.
• 2025-01-23 Listed for Rent $1,835 RENT.
• 2024-01-24 Rental Removed $1,785 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-21 Rental Removed $1,785 RENT.
• 2024-01-20 Price Changed $1,785 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $1,785 RENT.
• 2024-01-12 Price Changed $1,805 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-10 Price Changed $1,805 RENT.
• 2024-01-07 Price Changed $1,825 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-07 Price Changed $1,845 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-06 Price Changed $1,825 RENT.
• 2024-01-05 Price Changed $1,845 RENT.
• 2023-12-20 Price Changed $1,865 APPFOLIO
• 2023-12-19 Price Changed $1,865 RENT.
• 2023-12-15 Listed for Rent $1,895 APPFOLIO
• 2023-12-14 Listed for Rent $1,895 RENT.
• 2022-04-08 Price Changed $1,695 RENT.
• 2021-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-12-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-11-22 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-11-05 Listed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2021-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+34.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,229 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.