31500 Lake Shore Dr · Calimesa, CA 92373

$272,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1936 5,663 sqft lot $290/sqft · 14% below area Est $315k · 14% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the best of country living just minutes from Redlands. This private retreat offers peaceful surroundings, scenic views, and the perfect balance of rural tranquility with the convenience of nearby amenities. Experience the relaxed lifestyle of rural Redlands living while staying close to everything you need. Whether you're looking for space to unwind, room to grow, or simply a quiet place to call home, this property delivers. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy privacy, views, and the charm of country life -- all just minutes from town!

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1936

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $272k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $272k).
• Recommended offer: $256k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#865 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,680 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.85%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,105
• List price: $272,000
• Delta: -13.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-28,745
• Equity at exit: $40,556

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-26,687
• Equity at exit: $23,518

Cash invested: $76,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92373

• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,426
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$340 /mo · $4,080/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,379

Max offer price $272,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,000
• Closing costs: $8,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Enjoy the best of country living just minutes from Redlands. This private retreat offers peaceful surroundings, scenic views, and the perfect balance of rural tranquility with the convenience of nearby amenities. Experience the relaxed lifestyle of rural Redlands living while staying close to everything you need. Whether you're looking for space to unwind, room to grow, or simply a quiet place to call home, this property delivers. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy privacy, views, and the charm of country life -- all just minutes from town!

2. 2026-05-02
   status Active 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Enjoy the best of country living just minutes from Redlands. This private retreat offers peaceful surroundings, scenic views, and the perfect balance of rural tranquility with the convenience of nearby amenities. Experience the relaxed lifestyle of rural Redlands living while staying close to everything you need. Whether you're looking for space to unwind, room to grow, or simply a quiet place to call home, this property delivers. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy privacy, views, and the charm of country life -- all just minutes from town!

3. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Enjoy the best of country living just minutes from Redlands. This private retreat offers peaceful surroundings, scenic views, and the perfect balance of rural tranquility with the convenience of nearby amenities. Experience the relaxed lifestyle of rural Redlands living while staying close to everything you need. Whether you're looking for space to unwind, room to grow, or simply a quiet place to call home, this property delivers. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy privacy, views, and the charm of country life -- all just minutes from town!

4. 2026-04-21
   status Active 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Enjoy the best of country living just minutes from Redlands. This private retreat offers peaceful surroundings, scenic views, and the perfect balance of rural tranquility with the convenience of nearby amenities. Experience the relaxed lifestyle of rural Redlands living while staying close to everything you need. Whether you're looking for space to unwind, room to grow, or simply a quiet place to call home, this property delivers. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy privacy, views, and the charm of country life -- all just minutes from town!

5. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Enjoy the best of country living just minutes from Redlands. This private retreat offers peaceful surroundings, scenic views, and the perfect balance of rural tranquility with the convenience of nearby amenities. Experience the relaxed lifestyle of rural Redlands living while staying close to everything you need. Whether you're looking for space to unwind, room to grow, or simply a quiet place to call home, this property delivers. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy privacy, views, and the charm of country life -- all just minutes from town!

6. 2026-04-07
   price $272,000 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Enjoy the best of country living just minutes from Redlands. This private retreat offers peaceful surroundings, scenic views, and the perfect balance of rural tranquility with the convenience of nearby amenities. Experience the relaxed lifestyle of rural Redlands living while staying close to everything you need. Whether you're looking for space to unwind, room to grow, or simply a quiet place to call home, this property delivers. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy privacy, views, and the charm of country life -- all just minutes from town!

7. 2026-02-27
   listed $303,000 Active 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Enjoy the best of country living just minutes from Redlands. This private retreat offers peaceful surroundings, scenic views, and the perfect balance of rural tranquility with the convenience of nearby amenities. Experience the relaxed lifestyle of rural Redlands living while staying close to everything you need. Whether you're looking for space to unwind, room to grow, or simply a quiet place to call home, this property delivers. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy privacy, views, and the charm of country life -- all just minutes from town!

8. 2026-02-26
   historical $303,000 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Enjoy the best of country living just minutes from Redlands. This private retreat offers peaceful surroundings, scenic views, and the perfect balance of rural tranquility with the convenience of nearby amenities. Experience the relaxed lifestyle of rural Redlands living while staying close to everything you need. Whether you're looking for space to unwind, room to grow, or simply a quiet place to call home, this property delivers. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy privacy, views, and the charm of country life -- all just minutes from town!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone D · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,236
• − Property taxes: −$4,080
• − Insurance: −$1,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,735
• − Management: −$2,735
• − Depreciation: −$7,913
• Taxable income: $131
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$31
• After-tax cash flow: $4,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604290
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $60,635
• Composite: 40.37/100
• National rank: #3736
• State rank: #168 of 517 in CA

Livability — Calimesa

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #865
• US rank: #23579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 10,680
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,257
• Household income: $101,271
• Rent vs Own: 50.4% rent · 49.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 12% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -760.38%
• Current HPI: 324.3855
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.18%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $272,000 GPSMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $303,000 GPSMLS
• 2026-02-26 Coming Soon $303,000 GPSMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $236 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.