498 Bayview Dr NE · St. Petersburg, FL 33704

$650,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,866 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1964 9,435 sqft lot Est $649k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Step into a home with serious potential, effortless everyday function, and the classic Florida footprint buyers love. This single-level residence offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,866 square feet of living space, giving you room to spread out, host, work from home, create, relax, and live exactly the way you want. From the moment you arrive, the corner-lot setting makes an impression. Mature landscaping, a welcoming front porch, and a side-facing 2-car garage create clean, polished curb appeal while giving the home a practical, easy-living layout. Inside, the space opens with a bright, flexible floor plan designed for real life. Terrazzo and tile

Key facts

• Pantry storage
• Corner-lot setting
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• CORNER-LOT SETTING
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• BRIGHT FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• TERRAZZO AND TILE FLOORING
• PANTRY STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-280/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $646k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $553k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $553k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Shore Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 501 students, 46% FRL); John Hopkins Middle School (math 25% / reading 27%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 723 students, 66% FRL); St. Petersburg High School (math 31% / reading 61%, grade D-, #220 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,723 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $650k implies a 349% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $553,311 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.66%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $649,368
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
498 Bayview Dr NE	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,866 (0%)	1mo	$650,000	$348	99
1200 Eden Isle Blvd NE	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (-4%)	0mo	$715,000	$398	84
3650 Bayshore Blvd NE	0.62mi	4/3.0	1,885 (+1%)	8mo	$380,000	$202	58
1233 Eden Isle Dr NE	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,144 (+15%)	1mo	$1,350,000	$630	58
1112 38th Ave NE	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,901 (+2%)	3mo	$1,200,000	$631	56
3406 Bayshore Blvd NE	0.40mi	4/3.0	1,975 (+6%)	14mo	$310,000	$157	56
3219 Bayshore Blvd NE	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,754 (-6%)	14mo	$1,825,000	$1,040	53
4090 14th Ln NE	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,805 (-3%)	4mo	$515,000	$285	53
546 Rafael Blvd NE	0.28mi	4/3.5	2,055 (+10%)	13mo	$1,225,000	$596	53
3932 Shore Acres Blvd NE	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+7%)	11mo	$520,700	$260	46
1518 Cheyenne St NE	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-7%)	10mo	$515,000	$298	42
3934 Huntington St NE	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,630 (-13%)	2mo	$255,500	$157	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-104,388
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-82,767
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33704

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,462/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,162
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,563

Max offer price $645,874

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $345	-5% $161	+0% $-23	+5% $-207	+10% $-391
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-242	+0% $-23	+5% $195	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $304	-0.5pp $142	base $-23	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
926 Cordova Blvd NE Saint Petersburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2554	$7,500	$2.94	6d	1	0.11mi
1325 Snell Isle Blvd NE #507 Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.0	1940	$6,700	$3.45	6d	1	0.14mi
3435 Overlook Dr NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1428	$3,800	$2.66	6d	1	0.43mi
4026 Indianapolis St NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1364	$3,200	$2.35	6d	1	0.80mi
300 Brightwaters Blvd NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.0	2448	$7,500	$3.06	6d	1	0.82mi
4036 Overlook Dr NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,645	$1.87	16d	1	0.86mi
541 40th Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0	1630	$3,000	$1.84	26d	1	1.15mi
742 45th Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.0	1900	$5,200	$2.74	6d	1	1.20mi
411 42nd Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1365	$3,500	$2.56	19d	1	1.32mi
5273 Denver St NE Saint Petersburg, FL	4.0	2.0	2262	$3,875	$1.71	26d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $650,000 Active
3. 2025-01-27
   status Active
4. 2025-01-25
   historical
5. 2024-08-22
   listed $899,999 Active
6. 1998-03-02
   soldstatus $144,900
7. 1994-12-13
   soldstatus $89,000
8. 1994-08-10
   soldstatus $80,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,462 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,395 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,933/yr (+$161/mo · 55.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$3,462
• − Insurance: −$8,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,312
• − Management: −$5,312
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$11,376
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,730
• After-tax cash flow: $2,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Petersburg

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Petersburg, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 249,151
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,232
• Household income: $107,889
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 632.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -822.13%
• Current HPI: 473.0888
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+709.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $650,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-22 Listed $899,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $144,900 Public Records
• 1994-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1994-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $80,300 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,462 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.