12565 Melville Dr #224 · Montgomery, TX 77356

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · Condo · 535 Days on market

Built 2000 Good condition $122/sqft · 27% below area Est $193k · 27% under $300/mo HOA · 18% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 2 bedroom and 2 bath condo in the Walden community. The condo is a short distance from the yacht club, marina, park, racquet club, and fitness center. The condo boasts an updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless trim appliances. The flooring is a stylish laminate throughout the condo. Don't miss this great opportunity to join this incredible community.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Incredible community
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS TRIM APPLIANCES
• STYLISH LAMINATE
• FITNESS CENTER
• INCREDIBLE COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($645/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1304 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 535 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 9929% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 535 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.65%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,898
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -27.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12565 Melville Dr #114	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,147 (0%)	3mo	$145,000	$126	98
12246 Trail Hollow Dr	0.16mi	2/2.5	1,248 (+9%)	3mo	$99,000	$79	73
12500 Melville Dr Unit 233D	0.12mi	2/2.0	978 (-15%)	3mo	$214,000	$219	67
3823 Knollcrest Dr	0.19mi	2/2.5	1,430 (+25%)	2mo	$159,000	$111	62
12100 Melville Dr Unit 620F	0.28mi	2/2.0	964 (-16%)	1mo	$170,000	$176	61
12800 Melville Dr Unit B307	0.30mi	2/2.0	995 (-13%)	4mo	$275,000	$276	61
12800 Melville Dr Unit 314 A	0.31mi	2/2.0	866 (-24%)	4mo	$355,000	$410	57
3900 Aspen Dr Unit 308A	1.33mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,175 (+2%)	1mo	$282,000	$240	51
3900 Aspen Dr Unit 205B	1.33mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,244 (+8%)	2mo	$147,900	$119	40
12900 Walden Road Rd #620	0.78mi	2/2.0	866 (-24%)	2mo	$114,750	$133	38
3900 Aspen Dr Unit A 104	1.44mi	2/2.0	880 (-23%)	3mo	$234,900	$267	37
12900 Walden Rd Unit 812H	0.78mi	2/2.0	866 (-24%)	4mo	$105,000	$121	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-23,935
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-34,515
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $270,000 ($280/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -40.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1304
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,672 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,604

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $102	+0% $54	+5% $5	+10% $-43
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-12	+0% $54	+5% $120	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $89	base $54	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12500 Melville Dr Unit 317B Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$1,550	$1.72	93d	1	0.16mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 227C Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,700	$1.85	93d	1	0.16mi
12100 Melville Dr Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,750	$1.82	93d	2	0.33mi
12900 Walden Rd Unit 218 Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	25d	1	0.74mi
13155 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,295	$1.82	16d	2	0.77mi
11243 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,675	$1.16	4d	1	1.07mi
11231 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,499	$1.01	71d	1	1.08mi
16020 Fountainview Dr #12 Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,550	$1.07	1d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail $300/mo · $3,600/yr condo

• Likely covers: gym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 535 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $139,900 Active 533 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $139,900 Active 532 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 531 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $139,900 Active 530 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 527 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $139,900 Active 525 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $139,900 Active 524 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $139,900 Active 520 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $139,900 Active 519 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $139,900 Active 518 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $139,900 Active 517 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $139,900 Active 516 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $139,900 Active 514 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $139,900 Active 513 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $139,900 Active 512 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $139,900 Active 511 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $139,900 Active 510 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $139,900 Active 509 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $139,900 Active 508 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $139,900 Active 507 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $139,900 Active 506 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $139,900 Active 505 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 503 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $139,900 Active 502 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $139,900 Active 501 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 500 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 499 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 498 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 497 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 496 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $139,900 Active 495 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $139,900 Active 494 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $139,900 Active 493 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $139,900 Active 492 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $139,900 Active 490 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $149,900 Active 488 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $149,900 Active 487 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $149,900 Active 484 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $149,900 Active 483 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $149,900 Active 482 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $149,900 Active 481 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $149,900 Active 479 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $149,900 Active 478 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,900 Active 475 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 474 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 473 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 470 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 469 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 468 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,605
• − Management: −$1,605
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,455
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$349
• After-tax cash flow: $994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,735–$17,205 screening

This updated 2-bedroom and 2-bath condo in the Walden community is in good condition with recent updates and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or renter.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Neutral paint can be refreshed to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new blinds in windows — New blinds can improve privacy and aesthetic appeal ↑
• Both Add decorative molding — Decorative molding can enhance the visual appeal and perceived value of the home ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Madeley Ranch El C+ TX #505/4,322 Nat'l #8,534/41,679 Middle Lincoln El C TX #621/4,322 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

---

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $1,345 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed for Rent $1,395 HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $167,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2020-08-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-06-24 Price Changed $114,900 HARMLS
• 2020-05-01 Price Changed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2020-03-12 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2020-03-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-01-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-01-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-01-08 Price Changed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2019-12-05 Listed $134,000 HARMLS