20183 Lakeway Ln · Montgomery, TX 77356

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2015 8,755 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Want to live in a country atmosphere, look no further. Three beds, two bath over 1150 ft. ² on to lots, unrestricted use, washer and dryer included refrigerator and stove or minutes from Lake Conroe.

Key facts

• Unrestricted use
• 8,755 sq ft lot
• Built 2015

Tags

• UNRESTRICTED USE
• WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED
• REFRIGERATOR AND STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $586 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery El (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D+, #849 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 595 students, 45% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1069 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.33%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,288
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $33,824
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $977/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $668	-5% $627	+0% $586	+5% $545	+10% $504
Rent	-10% $437	-5% $512	+0% $586	+5% $661	+10% $735
Rate	-1.0pp $659	-0.5pp $623	base $586	+0.5pp $549	+1.0pp $510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-01-29
   historical $1,490
2. 2026-01-29
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-29
   price $145,000
4. 2026-01-26
   listed $135,000 Active
5. 2026-01-26
   historical
6. 2026-01-01
   status Active
7. 2025-12-31
   historical
8. 2025-08-11
   listed $1,490
9. 2025-07-09
   listed $145,000 Active
10. 2025-07-09
    historical
11. 2025-06-03
    listed $149,900 Active
12. 2025-06-03
    historical
13. 2025-04-11
    status Active
14. 2025-04-02
    historical
15. 2024-11-15
    listed $159,000 Active
16. 2024-04-12
    historical
17. 2024-04-10
    listed $174,900 Active
18. 2024-03-20
    historical
19. 2022-06-23
    historical
20. 2022-05-09
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $977 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,677/yr (+$140/mo · 171.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$977
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $4,950
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,188
• After-tax cash flow: $5,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Rental Removed $1,490 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed for Rent $1,490 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-15 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-10 Listed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2024-03-20 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2022-06-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-05-09 Listed $139,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $977 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.