176 Waterford Lake Dr · Calera, AL 35040

$199,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 914 sqft · Townhouse public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2007 2,613 sqft lot $219/sqft · 49% above area Est $207k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 176 Waterford Lake Dr where comfort, functionality, and low-maintenance living come together seamlessly. This beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome offers a versatile layout perfect for a variety of lifestyles. The main level features a convenient bedroom, ideal for guests, a home office, or easy accessibility, along with a spacious and inviting living area. The kitchen is thoughtfully laid out with ample cabinetry and counter space, making meal prep and entertaining both easy and enjoyable. Upstairs, you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite with a private bath and plenty of closet space. With its smart floor plan, this home offers the perfect balance of privacy and shared living space. Whether you're hosting friends or enjoying a quiet evening at home, the layout adapts to your needs. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a great investment opportunity, this home is a must-see.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2007
• Listed 66 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Calera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calera Intermediate School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 766 students, 68% FRL); Calera Middle (math 9% / reading 45%, grade F, #147 of 257 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 61% FRL); Calera High (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 1,066 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 26% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,284 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.18%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,862
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -3.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
513 Waterford Lake Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	968 (+6%)	8mo	$180,000	$186	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,826
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $10,900
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $894/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,527

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $355	-5% $298	+0% $242	+5% $185	+10% $129
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $169	+0% $242	+5% $314	+10% $387
Rate	-1.0pp $343	-0.5pp $293	base $242	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Kensington Manor Dr Calera, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$2,147	$2.03	3d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    listed $199,900 Active 984-char remark

    Show marketing remark (984 chars)

    Welcome to 176 Waterford Lake Dr where comfort, functionality, and low-maintenance living come together seamlessly. This beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome offers a versatile layout perfect for a variety of lifestyles. The main level features a convenient bedroom, ideal for guests, a home office, or easy accessibility, along with a spacious and inviting living area. The kitchen is thoughtfully laid out with ample cabinetry and counter space, making meal prep and entertaining both easy and enjoyable. Upstairs, you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite with a private bath and plenty of closet space. With its smart floor plan, this home offers the perfect balance of privacy and shared living space. Whether you're hosting friends or enjoying a quiet evening at home, the layout adapts to your needs. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a great investment opportunity, this home is a must-see.

18. 2026-04-14
    historical $199,900 984-char remark

    Show marketing remark (984 chars)

    Welcome to 176 Waterford Lake Dr where comfort, functionality, and low-maintenance living come together seamlessly. This beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome offers a versatile layout perfect for a variety of lifestyles. The main level features a convenient bedroom, ideal for guests, a home office, or easy accessibility, along with a spacious and inviting living area. The kitchen is thoughtfully laid out with ample cabinetry and counter space, making meal prep and entertaining both easy and enjoyable. Upstairs, you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite with a private bath and plenty of closet space. With its smart floor plan, this home offers the perfect balance of privacy and shared living space. Whether you're hosting friends or enjoying a quiet evening at home, the layout adapts to your needs. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a great investment opportunity, this home is a must-see.

19. 2021-04-06
    soldstatus $145,000
20. 2021-04-05
    soldstatus $145,000 Sold 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    This townhome is very attractive to say the least! The main level offers a spacious living room area, an open kitchen and dining room, and a half bath for guests. The master bedroom makes its debut on the main level which gives the right amount of separation and privacy. The upstairs is home to 2 additional bedrooms with a shared bathroom. This home features new paint, a new dishwasher, and new carpet among other things. This home has been well kept and looks immaculate. Come see it for yourself!

21. 2021-03-16
    historical Contingent 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    This townhome is very attractive to say the least! The main level offers a spacious living room area, an open kitchen and dining room, and a half bath for guests. The master bedroom makes its debut on the main level which gives the right amount of separation and privacy. The upstairs is home to 2 additional bedrooms with a shared bathroom. This home features new paint, a new dishwasher, and new carpet among other things. This home has been well kept and looks immaculate. Come see it for yourself!

22. 2021-03-12
    listed $135,000 Active 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    This townhome is very attractive to say the least! The main level offers a spacious living room area, an open kitchen and dining room, and a half bath for guests. The master bedroom makes its debut on the main level which gives the right amount of separation and privacy. The upstairs is home to 2 additional bedrooms with a shared bathroom. This home features new paint, a new dishwasher, and new carpet among other things. This home has been well kept and looks immaculate. Come see it for yourself!

23. 2021-03-09
    historical $135,000 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    This townhome is very attractive to say the least! The main level offers a spacious living room area, an open kitchen and dining room, and a half bath for guests. The master bedroom makes its debut on the main level which gives the right amount of separation and privacy. The upstairs is home to 2 additional bedrooms with a shared bathroom. This home features new paint, a new dishwasher, and new carpet among other things. This home has been well kept and looks immaculate. Come see it for yourself!

24. 2012-04-26
    soldstatus $98,500
25. 2012-04-23
    soldstatus $98,500
26. 2011-08-14
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $894 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $894 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$894
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$432
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$104
• After-tax cash flow: $3,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 388.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+100.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $199,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-14 Coming Soon $199,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-05 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-03-16 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-03-12 Listed $135,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-03-09 Coming Soon $135,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2012-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 2012-04-23 Sold (MLS) $98,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2011-08-14 Listed $99,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $894 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.