83027 Siltcoos Station Rd · Dunes City, OR 97493

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1950 0.26 ac lot $118/sqft · 69% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to own 0.26 acres across two tax lots with scenic views of Siltcoos Lake. The property features an existing placeholder home with active power and offers potential for your future vision in a peaceful coastal setting. No water source currently available. Exercise caution when entering the structure. On-site sewage system status unknown.

Key facts

• Two tax lots
• Active power
• Scenic views

Tags

• 0.26 ACRES
• SCENIC VIEWS
• TWO TAX LOTS
• ACTIVE POWER
• PEACEFUL COASTAL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RR5/NRC
• HOA & community: No senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; RV parking
• Utilities: Electricity; Water: Other; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition; Main living area on one level; Lake and trees/woods view; Built in 1950
• Construction: Composition roof; Built in 1950
• Exterior features: Lap siding; T-111 siding; Level lot; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (Main level)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Main level); Second bedroom (Main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (Main level)
• Heating & cooling: No built-in heating; No built-in cooling
• Interior features: Living room; Family room; Great room; Dining room; Yard

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.3% in Dunes City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#216 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Siuslaw SD 97J (town): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #106 of 183 in OR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Siuslaw Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 520 students, 68% FRL); Siuslaw Middle School (math 15% / reading 37%, grade F, #101 of 128 statewide, top 80%, 270 students, 68% FRL); Siuslaw High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #32 of 143 statewide, top 34%, 459 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $130k implies a 1199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $114,571 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.79%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $424,448
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -69.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $20,998
• Equity at exit: $58,409

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $67,189
• Equity at exit: $90,015

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97493

• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,024/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,039

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $121	+0% $84	+5% $48	+10% $11
Rent	-10% $-6	-5% $39	+0% $84	+5% $130	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $117	base $84	+0.5pp $51	+1.0pp $17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $129,900 Active 355-char remark
17. 1989-07-03
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$236/yr (+$20/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,024
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,100
• − Management: −$1,100
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$283
• After-tax cash flow: $1,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siuslaw SD 97J
• NCES district ID: 4105100
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,892
• Composite: 36.82/100
• National rank: #9169
• State rank: #106 of 183 in OR

Livability — Dunes City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #14748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 466

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Slovak 8% Romanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+1199.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $129,900 RMLS
• 1989-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,024 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.