1388 Bayview Ct #201 · Blaine, WA 98230

$320,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,078 sqft · Condo public records · 105 Days on market

Built 2006 $297/sqft · at area comps Est $332k · at est. $490/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked into a quiet cul-de-sac, this warm & inviting end-unit feels more like a cozy retreat than a typical condo. One of only 4 units in the building, enjoy peace & seclusion without sacrificing convenience. The natural light flows effortlessly throughout the open layout; anchored by a cozy gas fireplace and large living room. Updated primary bath + newer stainless appliances with granite counters throughout. Spacious balcony to take in the territorial views and smell the fresh sea air. Steps to the shores of Drayton Harbor, 1 mi from historic downtown Blaine & just 4 min to the Canadian border. Your next chapter starts here at Bayview!

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• End-unit
• Updated primary bath

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• END-UNIT
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• UPDATED PRIMARY BATH
• NEWER STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-619 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.2% in Blaine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#125 in WA, #2,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $235k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $210,710 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.29%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,864
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -3.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $135,331
• Equity at exit: $288,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $430,428
• Equity at exit: $621,690

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,382 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,391/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$490
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,165

Max offer price $210,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-438	-5% $-528	+0% $-619	+5% $-709	+10% $-800
Rent	-10% $-807	-5% $-713	+0% $-619	+5% $-525	+10% $-430
Rate	-1.0pp $-458	-0.5pp $-537	base $-619	+0.5pp $-702	+1.0pp $-786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1350 Mitchell Ave Blaine, WA	2.0	1.0	1302	$2,095	$1.61	45d	1	0.14mi
756 F St Unit 3 Blaine, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,525	$1.91	45d	1	0.58mi
399 H St Unit 3D Blaine, WA	2.0	1.5	929	$1,895	$2.04	15d	1	0.58mi
258 B St Unit B Blaine, WA	3.0	2.0	1182	$2,100	$1.78	45d	1	1.01mi
2734 Oleander Loop Unit 101 Blaine, WA	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,500	$1.78	15d	1	1.34mi
2753 Oleander Loop Blaine, WA	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,498	$1.78	15d	1	1.36mi
2834 Shore Pine Pl Unit 103 Blaine, WA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,395	$1.70	23d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $490 · $5,880/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $320,000 Pending 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $320,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $335,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-04-18
    price $335,000
18. 2026-03-05
    listed $350,000 Active
19. 2020-08-14
    soldstatus $235,000 Sold
20. 2020-07-18
    status Pending Inspection
21. 2020-06-30
    status Active
22. 2020-05-18
    status Pending Inspection
23. 2020-05-04
    price $235,000
24. 2020-03-17
    listed $245,000 Active
25. 2016-04-29
    historical
26. 2016-04-27
    soldstatus $135,000 Sold
27. 2016-04-27
    soldstatus $135,000
28. 2016-03-06
    status Pending Short Sale
29. 2016-02-27
    price $139,000
30. 2016-02-04
    status Active
31. 2015-11-30
    status Pending Short Sale
32. 2015-08-16
    price $149,900
33. 2015-07-15
    listed $159,000 Active
34. 2007-02-20
    soldstatus $189,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,391 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,136 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: +$745/yr (+$62/mo · 31.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,391
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,287
• − Management: −$2,287
• − HOA: −$5,880
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$13,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,142
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Blaine

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #2491

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment B Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blaine, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+76.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $335,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $350,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-14 Sold (MLS) $235,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-18 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-30 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-18 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-04 Price Changed $235,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-17 Listed $245,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-29 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-27 Sold (MLS) $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-06 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-27 Price Changed $139,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-04 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-16 Price Changed $149,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-15 Listed $159,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $189,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,391 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.