792 County Road 310 · Breckenridge, TX 76424

$104,895

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 2002 0.88 ac lot $156/sqft · 23% below area Est $137k · 23% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home set across six wooded lots near Hubbard Creek Lake offers a rare combination of privacy, usable land, and comfortable open-concept living. With 672 sq ft, new flooring, an updated bathroom, and central heat and air, the interior provides a practical foundation for full-time living or a thoughtfully designed weekend retreat. What makes this property stand out is the way the land shapes the experience. Mature trees filter the morning light across the covered front porch, creating a quiet place to start the day with your coffee. Evenings settle in under the same canopy, where the breeze moves through the branches and the property feels tucked away from the pace of town. A full metal awning protects the home, and the electric-equipped sea container adds meaningful versatility-whether used for guests, a workshop, or secure storage. With six lots, there is room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the space as it is. The setting offers a sense of openness that’s increasingly hard to find, while still placing you minutes from town and even closer to a public boat ramp for effortless lake access. Buyer and or buyer’s agent to verify all information.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Open concept living
• Public boat ramp

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULL METAL AWNING
• ROOM TO EXPAND
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($929/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.6% in Breckenridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#695 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckenridge ISD (town): math 36% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #551 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East El (404 students, 78% FRL); Breckenridge J H (math 38% / reading 31%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 300 students, 71% FRL); Breckenridge H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 424 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Stephens County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,903 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.16%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,068
• List price: $104,895
• Delta: -23.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
336 County Road 306	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	640 (-5%)	23mo	$142,000	$222	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $11,034
• Equity at exit: $40,253

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $40,839
• Equity at exit: $57,117

Cash invested: $29,371 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76424

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $658/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $821

Max offer price $104,895

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $107	+0% $77	+5% $48	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $5	-5% $41	+0% $77	+5% $114	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $104	base $77	+0.5pp $50	+1.0pp $23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,224
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $104,895 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $104,895 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $104,895 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,895 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,895 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,895 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,895 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,895 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $104,895 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $104,895 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $104,895 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $104,895 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,895 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,895 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,895 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,895 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,895 Active 72 DOM
18. 2026-03-20
    listed $104,895 Active 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home set across six wooded lots near Hubbard Creek Lake offers a rare combination of privacy, usable land, and comfortable open-concept living. With 672 sq ft, new flooring, an updated bathroom, and central heat and air, the interior provides a practical foundation for full-time living or a thoughtfully designed weekend retreat. What makes this property stand out is the way the land shapes the experience. Mature trees filter the morning light across the covered front porch, creating a quiet place to start the day with your coffee. Evenings settle in under the same canopy, where the breeze moves through the branches and the property feels tucked away from the pace of town. A full metal awning protects the home, and the electric-equipped sea container adds meaningful versatility-whether used for guests, a workshop, or secure storage. With six lots, there is room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the space as it is. The setting offers a sense of openness that’s increasingly hard to find, while still placing you minutes from town and even closer to a public boat ramp for effortless lake access. Buyer and or buyer’s agent to verify all information.

19. 2025-08-23
    price $124,885
20. 2025-04-30
    price $140,500
21. 2024-12-16
    price $150,500
22. 2024-11-12
    price $129,999
23. 2024-08-31
    listed $150,500 Active
24. 2008-07-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $658 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,920 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,261/yr (+$105/mo · 191.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$658
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$882
• − Management: −$882
• − Depreciation: −$3,051
• Taxable loss: −$846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$203
• After-tax cash flow: $1,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckenridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,744
• Composite: 28.66/100
• National rank: #6700
• State rank: #551 of 826 in TX

Livability — Breckenridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #695
• US rank: #12987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,626

Population outlook (Stephens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,625 people
• By 2030: 11,029 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 11,827 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 12,609 · +18.7%
• By 2075: 13,855 · +30.4%
• By 2100: 13,067 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Stephens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.3) · D 10.2% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -63.6pp · 2024: -79.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.3 2020: R+78.6 2016: R+77.8 2012: R+70.9 2008: R+63.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Current HPI: 110.8496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $104,895 NTREIS
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $124,885 NTREIS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $140,500 NTREIS
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $150,500 NTREIS
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $129,999 NTREIS
• 2024-08-31 Listed $150,500 NTREIS
• 2008-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $658 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.