2274 Elkhorn Tavern Rd · Eddyville, KY 42038

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,549 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $220k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely home near Lake Barkley and Mineral Mound Golf Course. Detached garage/shop for boat etc.

Key facts

• Lake barkley
• Detached garage
• Built 2005

Tags

• LAKE BARKLEY
• MINERAL MOUND GOLF COURSE
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.5% in Eddyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#174 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lyon County (rural): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lyon County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #100 of 676 statewide, top 16%, 457 students, 58% FRL); Lyon County Middle School (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C+, #16 of 217 statewide, top 7%, 243 students, 51% FRL); Lyon County High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 298 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lyon County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,782 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.14%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,958
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
196 Pebble Creek Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+7%)	1mo	$236,000	$142	63
87 Pebble Creek Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+0%)	23mo	$200,000	$129	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-21,313
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $15,990
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42038

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $883/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,236

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $598	-5% $513	+0% $428	+5% $344	+10% $259
Rent	-10% $209	-5% $319	+0% $428	+5% $538	+10% $648
Rate	-1.0pp $579	-0.5pp $504	base $428	+0.5pp $351	+1.0pp $272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   remarks 97-char remark
9. 2026-06-14
   listed $299,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $883 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,571 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,689/yr (+$141/mo · 191.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$883
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,667
• − Management: −$2,667
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$42
• After-tax cash flow: $5,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyon County
• NCES district ID: 2103690
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,899
• Composite: 40.94/100
• National rank: #3607
• State rank: #13 of 165 in KY

Livability — Eddyville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #8755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,045

Population outlook (Lyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,330 people
• By 2030: 8,308 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 8,196 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 8,069 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 8,131 · -2.4%
• By 2100: 6,856 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.4) · D 22.7% · R 76.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -53.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.4 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+44.0 2012: R+27.1 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.82%
• Current HPI: 148.5677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $299,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $883 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.