12918 Redbud Shores Ln · Houston, TX 77044

$329,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2006 4,003 sqft lot $123/sqft · 16% above area Est $283k · 16% over $77/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the "Upgrades-Only" house! A meticulous 4-bedroom home with a HOME OFFICE, formal dining, and upstairs GAME ROOM, delivering turnkey living experience designed for today’s discerning buyer. Ideally located near Beltway 8 & minutes from the new 234-acre Lilly Manufacturing campus under development in Generation Park! High end flooring—no carpet anywhere—paired with custom millwork, PLANTATION SHUTTERS, and automated ELECTRIC SHADES. The chef-inspired kitchen features CUSTOM CABINETRY with specialty storage, a five-burner GAS RANGE w/ DOUBLE OVENS, built-in ICE MACHINE, R. O. system, & a smart LG refrigerator that conveys. The primary suite of

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Plantation shutters
• Electric shades

Tags

• HOME OFFICE
• GAME ROOM
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• ELECTRIC SHADES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• GAS RANGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Crest Management Association); Annual association fee; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, park, pool, trails; Association fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities; Community features include community pool, curbs, and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2006
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fence (back yard); Tennis court(s); Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Breakfast bar; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Bamboo; Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Pots & pan drawers; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Vanity; Ceiling fans; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Reverse osmosis water filtration; Low emissivity windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-138/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $321k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeshore El (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 862 students, 48% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $320,763 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,455
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: 16.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12923 Pecan Shores Dr	0.07mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,777 (+4%)	0mo	$319,995	$115	86
12919 Palm Leaf Ct	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,863 (+7%)	3mo	$229,900	$80	85
13018 Sierra National Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,474 (-8%)	4mo	$405,000	$164	66
12926 Barkley Bend Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,364 (-12%)	1mo	$339,900	$144	65
13014 Barkley Bend Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,329 (-13%)	1mo	$330,000	$142	62
15666 Countesswells Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,714 (+1%)	0mo	$420,000	$155	60
15615 Tindary Meadow Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,673 (-0%)	2mo	$350,000	$131	59
16631 Polletts Cove Ct	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,396 (-11%)	2mo	$372,500	$155	58
13202 Clover Creek Point Ln	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,524 (-6%)	1mo	$375,000	$149	57
13103 Six Rivers Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	3,043 (+14%)	1mo	$479,000	$157	57
16810 Ellicott Rock Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,540 (-5%)	4mo	$440,000	$173	52
13002 Fernbank Forest Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,372 (-12%)	4mo	$424,000	$179	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-40,467
• Equity at exit: $70,264

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-43,023
• Equity at exit: $66,239

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$606 /mo · $7,273/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$674
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,222

Max offer price $326,974

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $82	+0% $-11	+5% $-105	+10% $-198
Rent	-10% $-265	-5% $-138	+0% $-11	+5% $115	+10% $242
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $72	base $-11	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	45d	1	0.65mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,676	$1.00	1d	1	0.69mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	3d	1	0.77mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	45d	1	0.81mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	4d	1	0.81mi
16614 Spirit Lake Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2374	$2,395	$1.01	26d	1	0.99mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,871	$1.09	1d	1	1.05mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	26d	1	1.22mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	1d	1	1.45mi
13513 Northline Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2034	$2,800	$1.38	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr
• Likely covers: gaselectric

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    price $329,000 1016-char remark
17. 2026-03-18
    price $335,000 1016-char remark
18. 2026-02-05
    listed $339,000 Active 1016-char remark
19. 2025-01-04
    historical $1,800
20. 2024-12-31
    listed $1,800
21. 2017-07-30
    historical
22. 2017-07-20
    price $217,900
23. 2017-06-18
    price $220,000
24. 2017-06-10
    listed $234,900 Active
25. 2016-10-01
    historical
26. 2016-08-31
    price $239,500
27. 2016-08-26
    price $239,450
28. 2016-08-05
    price $239,500
29. 2016-06-26
    listed $243,500 Active
30. 2012-03-24
    historical
31. 2012-01-10
    listed $176,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,273 · $606/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,273 · $606/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$7,273
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,079
• − Management: −$3,079
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$5,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $1,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+86.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $339,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-04 Rental Removed $1,800 RENTSPREE
• 2024-12-31 Listed for Rent $1,800 RENTSPREE
• 2017-07-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-07-20 Price Changed $217,900 HARMLS
• 2017-06-18 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2017-06-10 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2016-10-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-08-31 Price Changed $239,500 HARMLS
• 2016-08-26 Price Changed $239,450 HARMLS
• 2016-08-05 Price Changed $239,500 HARMLS
• 2016-06-26 Listed $243,500 HARMLS
• 2012-03-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-01-10 Listed $176,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,273 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.