9420 Azure Breeze Ave · Memphis, FL 34221

$373,400

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Est $430k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 9420 Azure Breeze Ave, Parrish FL 34221; Active listing; last updated Jun 10, 2026; Inventory type: Spec
• Financial info: List price $373,400

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home; Columbia plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2389

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (Columbia plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $373k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,151/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $315,112 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $430,020
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3212 77th Ct E	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (-11%)	14mo	$381,000	$180	34
3409 77th Ct E	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (-11%)	12mo	$375,000	$177	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-75,496
• Equity at exit: $55,675

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-108,707
• Equity at exit: $32,285

Cash invested: $104,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,958
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$467 /mo · $5,601/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,266

Max offer price $360,218

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $38	+0% $-91	+5% $-220	+10% $-349
Rent	-10% $-340	-5% $-216	+0% $-91	+5% $33	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $4	base $-91	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,350
• Closing costs: $11,202
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6115 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,990	$1.35	5d	1	0.02mi
2789 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	25d	1	1.13mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2113	$1,800	$0.85	25d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $373,400 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $373,400 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $373,400 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $373,400 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $373,400 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $373,400 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $373,400 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,916
• − Property taxes: −$5,601
• − Insurance: −$1,867
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,025
• − Management: −$3,025
• − Depreciation: −$10,863
• Taxable loss: −$7,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,796
• After-tax cash flow: $703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B