462 Westchase · Conroe, TX 77316

$162,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured public records · 303 Days on market

Built 2023 2,099 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely single story home close to the lake. Pictures are of a similar build in the community. So many nice features in this home. The high ceilings give it large open feel that compliments the rounded corners and archways. This open floor plan features a granite kitchen with stainless appliances and a breakfast bar that opens to the den and dining area. Very nice size laundry room included! This home has ceramic tile throughout and carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bath has an extra large shower that gives it a spa like feel. All this with no back neighbors and at a very affordable price. Come take a look soon! The lots on each side are also available and would add space for a garage and

Key facts

• New construction
• Stainless appliances
• Extra large shower

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• GRANITE KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• CERAMIC TILE
• EXTRA LARGE SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $162,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $165,200.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.12%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16907 W Ivanhoe	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	1mo	$109,900	$75	85
16861 W Lynbrook	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-12%)	8mo	$144,999	$118	64
202 Ridgeside	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	11mo	$154,750	$127	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,988
• Equity at exit: $24,632

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,176
• Equity at exit: $14,283

Cash invested: $46,256 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$866
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,802/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,521

Max offer price $165,200

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $437	+0% $390	+5% $343	+10% $297
Rent	-10% $231	-5% $311	+0% $390	+5% $470	+10% $549
Rate	-1.0pp $473	-0.5pp $432	base $390	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $304

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,300
• Closing costs: $4,956
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	45d	1	0.11mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	45d	1	0.12mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	14d	1	0.13mi
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	45d	1	0.24mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	45d	1	0.35mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	26d	1	0.58mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	45d	1	0.93mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	45d	1	0.97mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	45d	1	1.11mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	45d	1	1.22mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	45d	1	1.22mi
124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1624	$2,900	$1.79	45d	1	1.25mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	45d	1	1.35mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	22d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-16
   status Active
3. 2026-01-15
   historical
4. 2026-01-06
   price $162,900
5. 2025-12-16
   status Active
6. 2025-12-15
   historical
7. 2025-12-01
   status Active
8. 2025-11-30
   historical
9. 2025-11-23
   status Active
10. 2025-11-22
    historical
11. 2025-09-17
    status Active
12. 2025-09-10
    status Pending
13. 2025-05-30
    price $173,000
14. 2025-05-21
    listed $177,900 Active
15. 2025-05-20
    historical
16. 2025-04-07
    status Active
17. 2025-04-02
    status Pending
18. 2025-03-30
    status Option Pending
19. 2025-01-16
    status Active
20. 2025-01-15
    historical
21. 2024-09-21
    price $177,900
22. 2024-08-09
    listed $179,500 Active
23. 2024-07-27
    historical
24. 2024-06-05
    price $179,500
25. 2024-03-29
    price $184,500
26. 2024-02-24
    listed $187,000 Active
27. 2021-07-30
    soldstatus
28. 1997-12-23
    soldstatus $9,110,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,802 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$179/yr (+$15/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,254
• − Property taxes: −$2,802
• − Insurance: −$826
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$4,806
• Taxable income: $2,228
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$535
• After-tax cash flow: $4,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $162,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $173,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $177,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-21 Price Changed $177,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-09 Listed $179,500 HARMLS
• 2024-07-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-05 Price Changed $179,500 HARMLS
• 2024-03-29 Price Changed $184,500 HARMLS
• 2024-02-24 Listed $187,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $9,110,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,802 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.