3052 N Gary St #137 · New Castle, IN 47362

$78,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition $65/sqft · 54% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $79k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.5% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#64 in IN, #4,219 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Blue River Valley Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #255 of 301 in IN (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Blue River Valley Elementary Sch (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #737 of 994 statewide, top 76%, 322 students, 56% FRL); Blue River Valley Jr-Sr High Sch (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #325 of 369 statewide, top 91%, 320 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 32% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 47 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $71,889 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.53%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,129
• List price: $78,999
• Delta: -54.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2319 N State Road 3	1.01mi	3/1.0	1,240 (+2%)	31mo	$164,000	$132	38
431 S Hardacre Ct	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+25%)	5mo	$250,000	$165	36
501 S Hardacre Ct	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+17%)	5mo	$225,000	$158	36
225 W Western Rd	1.17mi	3/1.5	1,284 (+6%)	33mo	$146,000	$114	34
502 W Western Rd	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+10%)	20mo	$184,000	$137	31
2506 N County Road 50 E	1.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	945 (-22%)	12mo	$180,000	$190	21
430 W Western Rd	1.09mi	3/1.0	1,488 (+22%)	22mo	$185,900	$125	18
2418 N SR 3 Hwy	0.91mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-11%)	35mo	$136,775	$127	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $13,224
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $50,689
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active
• Median asking: $77,999 ($65/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +120.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 47362

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $78,999

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $433	-5% $406	+0% $378	+5% $351	+10% $324
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $332	+0% $378	+5% $425	+10% $471
Rate	-1.0pp $418	-0.5pp $399	base $378	+0.5pp $358	+1.0pp $337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3052 N Gary St New Castle, IN	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,249	$1.03	0d	3	0.12mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $78,999

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gasElectricity for central air
• Home design: Spec new-construction plan: Maynardville Classic 76Single-level (entry level not specified)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,216
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 total bathrooms3 bedrooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $78,999 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $78,999 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $78,999 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $78,999 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $78,999 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $78,999 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $78,999 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $78,999 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $78,999 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $78,999 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $78,999 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $78,999 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $78,999 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $78,999 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $78,999 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $78,999 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $78,999 Active 67 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $78,999 Active 66 DOM
19. 2026-08-25
    days on market $78,999 Active 64 DOM
20. 2026-08-24
    days on market $78,999 Active 63 DOM
21. 2026-08-23
    days on market $78,999 Active 62 DOM
22. 2026-08-22
    days on market $78,999 Active 61 DOM
23. 2026-08-21
    days on market $78,999 Active 60 DOM
24. 2026-08-20
    days on market $78,999 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-08-19
    days on market $78,999 Active 58 DOM
26. 2026-08-18
    days on market $78,999 Active 57 DOM
27. 2026-08-17
    days on market $78,999 Active 56 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $78,999 Active 55 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $78,999 Active 54 DOM
30. 2026-08-14
    days on market $78,999 Active 53 DOM
31. 2026-08-13
    days on market $78,999 Active 52 DOM
32. 2026-08-12
    days on market $78,999 Active 51 DOM
33. 2026-08-11
    days on market $78,999 Active 50 DOM
34. 2026-08-10
    days on market $78,999 Active 49 DOM
35. 2026-08-09
    days on market $78,999 Active 48 DOM
36. 2026-08-08
    days on market $78,999 Active 47 DOM
37. 2026-08-07
    days on market $78,999 Active 46 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $78,999 Active 45 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $78,999 Active 44 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $78,999 Active 43 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $78,999 Active 42 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $78,999 Active 39 DOM
43. 2026-07-29
    days on market $78,999 Active 37 DOM
44. 2026-07-27
    days on market $78,999 Active 35 DOM
45. 2026-07-25
    days on market $78,999 Active 33 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $78,999 Active 32 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $78,999 Active 31 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $78,999 Active 30 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $78,999 Active 29 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $78,999 Active 26 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,123
• − Management: −$1,123
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $3,492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$838
• After-tax cash flow: $3,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $60,800–$109,440 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and updates, including a new roof, exterior siding, interior painting, landscaping, and HVAC system upgrades. Significant value can be added through these improvements, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and tear visible.
• Major exterior siding — Aged and in need of repair.
• Major interior walls — Plain and may need painting.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and requires maintenance.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, likely outdated or in need of repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting the interior and exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both upgrading the HVAC system — A modern HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, boosting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can attract more buyers and renters, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blue River Valley Elementary Sch F IN #737/994 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 High Blue River Valley Jr-Sr High Sch F IN #325/369 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue River Valley Schools
• NCES district ID: 1800660
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,634
• Composite: 23.84/100
• National rank: #7803
• State rank: #255 of 301 in IN

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #4219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 48,028 people
• City population: 29,337
• Metro: New Castle, IN
• Population (ZIP): 29,337
• Household income: $60,258
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,028 people
• By 2030: 47,125 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 44,820 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 42,207 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 35,814 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 26,779 · -44.2%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.3% · R 73.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.9pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.70%
• Current HPI: 228.8885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.59%
• Metro: New Castle, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $78,999

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gasElectricity for central air
• Home design: Spec new-construction plan: Maynardville Classic 76Single-level (entry level not specified)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,216
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 total bathrooms3 bedrooms