40206 Palm St · Lady Lake, FL 32159

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,049 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1997 0.42 ac lot Est $205k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your home in the country awaits you! All fresh paint inside and out! The home is ready to go! 3/2 block home with a huge storage shed/workshop! The property offers curb appeal, no rear neighbors, woods to the left and more. The inside has a large open living area and a split floor plan. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space and room for a dining table. Enjoy the evenings on your back patio with a woods view. There is a large 2 car garage for plenty of parking space. The home has upgraded flooring in the living area and bedrooms. The workshop offers 100 amp electric, it's own a/c and is fully insulated! Great home, great buy! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. All information contained in this listing is believed to be correct at the time of entry, but not guaranteed

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Fenced-in backyard
• Large shed

Tags

• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• LARGE SHED
• OPEN AND INVITING LAYOUT
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Zoned R1; Lot approximately 0.43 acres (about 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; On-site storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Additional storage space
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-80/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Lady Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#457 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: The Villages Elementary of Lady Lake School (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 761 students, 61% FRL); Carver Middle School (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 837 students, 65% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 589 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $250k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,729 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,555
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40206 Palm St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,049 (0%)	0mo	$240,000	$229	100
40103 Dogwood Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,067 (+2%)	22mo	$200,000	$187	67
40229 Palm St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+13%)	18mo	$230,700	$195	59
39746 Magnolia St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	23mo	$194,900	$193	39
4043 Lake Griffin Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,183 (+13%)	23mo	$165,000	$139	30
39828 Grays Airport Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,203 (+15%)	23mo	$235,000	$195	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,934
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-26,115
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 589
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,755/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,976

Max offer price $248,717

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $64	+0% $-7	+5% $-77	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-84	+0% $-7	+5% $71	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $57	base $-7	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40233 Palm St Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,695	$1.68	18d	1	0.11mi
40045 Palm St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1429	$2,350	$1.64	26d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $249,900 Active
2. 2016-09-29
   soldstatus $105,000 Sold 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Your home in the country awaits you! All fresh paint inside and out! The home is ready to go! 3/2 block home with a huge storage shed/workshop! The property offers curb appeal, no rear neighbors, woods to the left and more. The inside has a large open living area and a split floor plan. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space and room for a dining table. Enjoy the evenings on your back patio with a woods view. There is a large 2 car garage for plenty of parking space. The home has upgraded flooring in the living area and bedrooms. The workshop offers 100 amp electric, it's own a/c and is fully insulated! Great home, great buy! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. All information contained in this listing is believed to be correct at the time of entry, but not guaranteed

3. 2016-08-17
   status Pending 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Your home in the country awaits you! All fresh paint inside and out! The home is ready to go! 3/2 block home with a huge storage shed/workshop! The property offers curb appeal, no rear neighbors, woods to the left and more. The inside has a large open living area and a split floor plan. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space and room for a dining table. Enjoy the evenings on your back patio with a woods view. There is a large 2 car garage for plenty of parking space. The home has upgraded flooring in the living area and bedrooms. The workshop offers 100 amp electric, it's own a/c and is fully insulated! Great home, great buy! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. All information contained in this listing is believed to be correct at the time of entry, but not guaranteed

4. 2016-08-16
   historical Contingent - REO Waiting For Signatures 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Your home in the country awaits you! All fresh paint inside and out! The home is ready to go! 3/2 block home with a huge storage shed/workshop! The property offers curb appeal, no rear neighbors, woods to the left and more. The inside has a large open living area and a split floor plan. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space and room for a dining table. Enjoy the evenings on your back patio with a woods view. There is a large 2 car garage for plenty of parking space. The home has upgraded flooring in the living area and bedrooms. The workshop offers 100 amp electric, it's own a/c and is fully insulated! Great home, great buy! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. All information contained in this listing is believed to be correct at the time of entry, but not guaranteed

5. 2016-08-10
   status Active 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Your home in the country awaits you! All fresh paint inside and out! The home is ready to go! 3/2 block home with a huge storage shed/workshop! The property offers curb appeal, no rear neighbors, woods to the left and more. The inside has a large open living area and a split floor plan. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space and room for a dining table. Enjoy the evenings on your back patio with a woods view. There is a large 2 car garage for plenty of parking space. The home has upgraded flooring in the living area and bedrooms. The workshop offers 100 amp electric, it's own a/c and is fully insulated! Great home, great buy! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. All information contained in this listing is believed to be correct at the time of entry, but not guaranteed

6. 2016-08-03
   status Pending 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Your home in the country awaits you! All fresh paint inside and out! The home is ready to go! 3/2 block home with a huge storage shed/workshop! The property offers curb appeal, no rear neighbors, woods to the left and more. The inside has a large open living area and a split floor plan. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space and room for a dining table. Enjoy the evenings on your back patio with a woods view. There is a large 2 car garage for plenty of parking space. The home has upgraded flooring in the living area and bedrooms. The workshop offers 100 amp electric, it's own a/c and is fully insulated! Great home, great buy! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. All information contained in this listing is believed to be correct at the time of entry, but not guaranteed

7. 2016-08-01
   historical Contingent - REO Waiting For Signatures 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Your home in the country awaits you! All fresh paint inside and out! The home is ready to go! 3/2 block home with a huge storage shed/workshop! The property offers curb appeal, no rear neighbors, woods to the left and more. The inside has a large open living area and a split floor plan. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space and room for a dining table. Enjoy the evenings on your back patio with a woods view. There is a large 2 car garage for plenty of parking space. The home has upgraded flooring in the living area and bedrooms. The workshop offers 100 amp electric, it's own a/c and is fully insulated! Great home, great buy! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. All information contained in this listing is believed to be correct at the time of entry, but not guaranteed

8. 2016-07-25
   listed $104,900 Active 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Your home in the country awaits you! All fresh paint inside and out! The home is ready to go! 3/2 block home with a huge storage shed/workshop! The property offers curb appeal, no rear neighbors, woods to the left and more. The inside has a large open living area and a split floor plan. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space and room for a dining table. Enjoy the evenings on your back patio with a woods view. There is a large 2 car garage for plenty of parking space. The home has upgraded flooring in the living area and bedrooms. The workshop offers 100 amp electric, it's own a/c and is fully insulated! Great home, great buy! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. All information contained in this listing is believed to be correct at the time of entry, but not guaranteed

9. 2006-01-03
   soldstatus $132,000
10. 2005-12-15
    soldstatus $132,000 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    Affordable home in country setting, but, not far from shopping or restaurants. Freshly painted with new carpet and vinyl on double lots. 2 lots at this price!!!

11. 2005-10-24
    listed $169,900 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    Affordable home in country setting, but, not far from shopping or restaurants. Freshly painted with new carpet and vinyl on double lots. 2 lots at this price!!!

12. 2003-04-08
    soldstatus $81,500
13. 2000-05-01
    soldstatus $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,755 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$319/yr (+$27/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,755
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lady Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #8302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+317.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-29 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-16 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-01 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-25 Listed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-15 Sold (MLS) $132,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-24 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $81,500 Public Records
• 2000-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,755 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.