1500 N Trumbull St · Bay City, MI 48708

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,291 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1955 7,405 sqft lot $128/sqft · 90% above area Est $173k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into Essexville, this brick ranch is just waiting for someone to make it their own. When you walk in, you’re greeted by a generously sized living room featuring a cozy gas fireplace. Straight through the living room, you’ll find the eat-in kitchen, while a hallway to the left leads seamlessly to three bedrooms and a full bath. Downstairs offers even more space with a finished basement complete with a bonus room and additional full bath. Outside, the fenced backyard and in-ground bromine pool create the perfect setting for summer entertaining. With a little TLC, this home has so much potential to truly shine.

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Bonus room
• Finished basement

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• BONUS ROOM
• FENCED BACKYARD
• IN-GROUND BROMINE POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with direct access (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Lot about 53 x 136 (0.17 acres); Subdivision: Fitzhugh; Located near Nebobish St / Woodside Ave

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Finished basement; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-517/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $138,884 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,275
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -4.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1316 N Trumbull St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,312 (+2%)	2mo	$118,303	$90	87
1539 Park Ave	0.23mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,371 (+6%)	0mo	$175,000	$128	74
714 Nebobish Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-0%)	4mo	$69,000	$54	74
608 Woodside Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+2%)	4mo	$140,000	$106	71
1020 N TRUMBULL St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (-9%)	8mo	$70,000	$60	53
2121 7th St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,182 (-8%)	2mo	$175,000	$148	51
2110 4th St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-14%)	9mo	$78,000	$71	50
800 Woodside Ln	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,450 (+12%)	8mo	$144,000	$99	50
2021 7th St	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,242 (-4%)	9mo	$139,999	$113	49
1500 6th St	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,413 (+10%)	1mo	$128,500	$91	45
2131 7th St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,436 (+11%)	6mo	$134,000	$93	45
308 Borton Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-15%)	8mo	$144,900	$132	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-29,461
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-29,103
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,389 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $158,764

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	43d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,400 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $167,400 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $167,400 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $167,400 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $167,400 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on market $167,400 Active 6 DOM

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Tucked into Essexville, this brick ranch is just waiting for someone to make it their own. When you walk in, you’re greeted by a generously sized living room featuring a cozy gas fireplace. Straight through the living room, you’ll find the eat-in kitchen, while a hallway to the left leads seamlessly to three bedrooms and a full bath. Downstairs offers even more space with a finished basement complete with a bonus room and additional full bath. Outside, the fenced backyard and in-ground bromine pool create the perfect setting for summer entertaining. With a little TLC, this home has so much potential to truly shine.

14. 2026-05-15
    listed $169,900 Active 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Tucked into Essexville, this brick ranch is just waiting for someone to make it their own. When you walk in, you’re greeted by a generously sized living room featuring a cozy gas fireplace. Straight through the living room, you’ll find the eat-in kitchen, while a hallway to the left leads seamlessly to three bedrooms and a full bath. Downstairs offers even more space with a finished basement complete with a bonus room and additional full bath. Outside, the fenced backyard and in-ground bromine pool create the perfect setting for summer entertaining. With a little TLC, this home has so much potential to truly shine.

15. 2026-05-15
    listed $169,900 Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Tucked into Essexville, this brick ranch is just waiting for someone to make it their own. When you walk in, you’re greeted by a generously sized living room featuring a cozy gas fireplace. Straight through the living room, you’ll find the eat-in kitchen, while a hallway to the left leads seamlessly to three bedrooms and a full bath. Downstairs offers even more space with a finished basement complete with a bonus room and additional full bath. Outside, the fenced backyard and in-ground bromine pool create the perfect setting for summer entertaining. With a little TLC, this home has so much potential to truly shine.

16. 2022-03-03
    soldstatus $130,000
17. 2022-02-28
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Sweet Brick Ranch Features an Updated Kitchen. Spacious 3-4 Bedroom With 2 Baths. Full Finished Basement has a Family Room 32 x 15 and 4th Bedroom 21 x 10 with it's Own Bath. Driveway On Nebobish for Easy Access. Pool Lover Needed for this Nice Heated Inground Pool. 1 Car Attached Heated Garage. Energy Efficient Vinyl Windows. New Boiler. Yes I have Central Air. Historical Cove Ceilings. Call Today for your Private Showing.

18. 2022-02-13
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Sweet Brick Ranch Features an Updated Kitchen. Spacious 3-4 Bedroom With 2 Baths. Full Finished Basement has a Family Room 32 x 15 and 4th Bedroom 21 x 10 with it's Own Bath. Driveway On Nebobish for Easy Access. Pool Lover Needed for this Nice Heated Inground Pool. 1 Car Attached Heated Garage. Energy Efficient Vinyl Windows. New Boiler. Yes I have Central Air. Historical Cove Ceilings. Call Today for your Private Showing.

19. 2022-01-27
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Sweet Brick Ranch Features an Updated Kitchen. Spacious 3-4 Bedroom With 2 Baths. Full Finished Basement has a Family Room 32 x 15 and 4th Bedroom 21 x 10 with it's Own Bath. Driveway On Nebobish for Easy Access. Pool Lover Needed for this Nice Heated Inground Pool. 1 Car Attached Heated Garage. Energy Efficient Vinyl Windows. New Boiler. Yes I have Central Air. Historical Cove Ceilings. Call Today for your Private Showing.

20. 2021-12-29
    price $130,000

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Sweet Brick Ranch Features an Updated Kitchen. Spacious 3-4 Bedroom With 2 Baths. Full Finished Basement has a Family Room 32 x 15 and 4th Bedroom 21 x 10 with it's Own Bath. Driveway On Nebobish for Easy Access. Pool Lover Needed for this Nice Heated Inground Pool. 1 Car Attached Heated Garage. Energy Efficient Vinyl Windows. New Boiler. Yes I have Central Air. Historical Cove Ceilings. Call Today for your Private Showing.

21. 2021-11-29
    listed $135,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Sweet Brick Ranch Features an Updated Kitchen. Spacious 3-4 Bedroom With 2 Baths. Full Finished Basement has a Family Room 32 x 15 and 4th Bedroom 21 x 10 with it's Own Bath. Driveway On Nebobish for Easy Access. Pool Lover Needed for this Nice Heated Inground Pool. 1 Car Attached Heated Garage. Energy Efficient Vinyl Windows. New Boiler. Yes I have Central Air. Historical Cove Ceilings. Call Today for your Private Showing.

22. 2021-03-12
    soldstatus $114,000
23. 2021-03-12
    soldstatus $114,000
24. 2021-03-01
    listed $112,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,333
• − Management: −$1,333
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$802
• After-tax cash flow: $285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+46.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $165,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $165,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $167,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-01 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $167,400 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-01 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $169,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-15 Listed $169,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-01-27 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-29 Price Changed $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-29 Listed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-12 Sold (MLS) $114,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-03-01 Listed $112,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-22.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $170 · -93.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.