516 Elberta Loop · Lillian, AL 36549

$174,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 480 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2016 3,267 sqft lot $364/sqft · 46% above area Est $201k · 13% under $74/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your coastal retreat in Spanish Cove in Lillian, Alabama! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 3-bath cottage offers a flexible layout and access to one of the area’s most amenity-rich waterfront communities on Perdido Bay. Inside, you’ll find an open living and dining area with moveable kitchen island designed for comfortable everyday living and easy entertaining. The home features three private bedroom suites—each with its own bathroom—providing ideal privacy for guests or multi-generational living. A standout feature is the third bedroom, which has its own private entrance and functions like a separate living space, complete with a shower, toilet, kitchenett

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Mini-split systems
• Private entrance

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• PRIVATE BEDROOM SUITES
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• DEDICATED WORKSHOP AREA
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEMS
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association transfer fees apply
• HOA & community: Quarterly association fee (fee includes management, common area insurance, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, reserve funds, security, common area taxes, trash, clubhouse, pool); Community amenities include clubhouse, outdoor pool, fitness center, tennis courts, playground, BBQ area, fishing, meeting room, on-site management, internet, wheelchair access, water access (deeded), optional club

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for three or more vehicles (total 2 marked parking spaces)
• Security: Community security included in association services
• Utilities: Perdido Bay Water; Baldwin County sewer service; Riviera Utilities
• Home design: One-story home; Resale condition
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding, block and wood frame; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Metal roof; Building area about 810 square feet
• Exterior features: Covered screened front porch; Front porch; Storage structure; Community pool access; Has view; Interior lot with high elevation; Less than 1 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom and bathroom combo on the main level (approx. 14.5' x 12.5')
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Primary bath with shower only and single vanity
• Heating & cooling: Window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Storage space; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level in a common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-343 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elberta Elementary School (math 47% / reading 65%, grade C+, #83 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 884 students, 58% FRL); Elberta Middle School (math 21% / reading 67%, grade D, #42 of 257 statewide, top 17%, 267 students, 63% FRL); Elberta High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 784 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 38% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $175k implies a 600% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,888 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.42%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,495
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -13.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
518 Elberta Loop	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	480 (0%)	12mo	$145,000	$302	80
479 Buena Vista Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	480 (0%)	13mo	$131,000	$273	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-50,154
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-71,585
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36549

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$74
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,624

Max offer price $125,198

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-223	-5% $-283	+0% $-343	+5% $-404	+10% $-464
Rent	-10% $-437	-5% $-390	+0% $-343	+5% $-297	+10% $-250
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-299	base $-343	+0.5pp $-389	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $174,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 30 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 29 DOM
19. 2026-05-01
    listed $174,900 Active 1758-char remark
20. 2007-07-10
    soldstatus $25,000
21. 2003-09-24
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,141
• − Management: −$1,141
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$7,287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,749
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 6,152

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.45%
• Current HPI: 285.5902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+599.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $174,900 BCAR
• 2007-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $165 · +55.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.