17 Leslie Ln · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11787

$899,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1965 0.25 ac lot Est $1040k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 17 Leslie Lane. .. a Beautifully updated Colonial Splanch nestled in a tree-lined neighborhood in Smithtown with Commack SD, this spacious home features 4 possibly 5 bedrooms and 2.5 Baths. .Large Entry Foyer, Formal Dining Room, Expansive Kitchen with large Island. .and Sitting/Den area with Fireplace and steps up to a Large Living Room, Gas Cooking and Heat, CAC. Hardwood Floors, Step outside to a Private Backyard with paver patio complete with a Salt Water/ Heated In-ground pool. This home has it all. .. all while conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and Parks. .. make this your forever home!!

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Expansive kitchen
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• UPDATED COLONIAL SPLANCH
• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD RETREAT
• IN-GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Natural gas connected; Water connected; Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; No waterfront
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Fenced yard (vinyl fence); In-ground private pool; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen island; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Baseboard heating; Natural gas heating; Smart thermostat
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat; Walk-in closets; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $899k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($129k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $899k).
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 6.4% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eastport-South Manor CSD (suburban): math 62% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #147 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $899k implies a 283% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $899,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.15%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,040,204
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Howell Pl	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+11%)	6mo	$835,000	$363	54
16 Clay Pit Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,300 (+11%)	11mo	$1,158,000	$503	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $537,941
• Equity at exit: $134,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $1,349,508
• Equity at exit: $77,729

Cash invested: $251,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11787

• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,384 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax from tax record: −$1,075 /mo · $12,904/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,491
• Net cashflow: $10,729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,803

Max offer price $899,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11,238	-5% $10,983	+0% $10,729	+5% $10,474	+10% $10,220
Rent	-10% $9,039	-5% $9,884	+0% $10,729	+5% $11,573	+10% $12,418
Rate	-1.0pp $11,182	-0.5pp $10,957	base $10,729	+0.5pp $10,496	+1.0pp $10,259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $224,750
• Closing costs: $26,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134A Montauk Hwy Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2478	$15,000	$6.05	0d	1	0.90mi
25 N Quarter Rd Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2000	$30,000	$15.00	18d	1	1.04mi
70 Jagger Ln Westhampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1850	$20,000	$10.81	0d	1	1.07mi
70 Tanners Neck Ln Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2100	$20,000	$9.52	45d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $899,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $899,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $899,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $899,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   remarks 626-char remark
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $899,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,904 · $1,075/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,049 · $1,171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,144/yr (+$95/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $256,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,358
• − Property taxes: −$12,904
• − Insurance: −$4,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,528
• − Management: −$20,528
• − Depreciation: −$26,153
• Taxable income: $121,639
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$29,193
• After-tax cash flow: $99,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastport-South Manor CSD
• NCES district ID: 3600125
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $91,204
• Composite: 59.55/100
• National rank: #918
• State rank: #147 of 590 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 34,656

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.62%
• Current HPI: 301.0617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+458.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $161,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $12,904 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.