9451 Scott Dairy Loop Rd S · Tillmans Corner, AL 36695

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,870 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1942 0.50 ac lot $123/sqft · 12% below area Est $263k · 12% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Timeless elegances. Mature trees frame the property. Next door to Magnolia Downs subdivision, 1870+/4BD/2 bath on approx. 1/2 acre of metes and bounds land. Endless possibilities. Perfect family home, home business, Airbnb, boutique, and more. No restrictions found. I have an extra wooded lot behind the house available for sale. The house must sell first. Walk 0.9 miles or drive down the street to Hutchens Elementary School. The master bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a compact bedside office. Large step-down living room with brick floors and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Solid wood floors throughout the main areas, including closets with tile in bathrooms, laundry room, and a large back porch. The large patio. Located near shopping, hospitals, and the airport. 30 minutes to Dauphin Island or Fairhope Beach. Less than 1 hour to Gulf Shores and 15 minutes to Bellingrath Gardens. SOLD As Is Where Is. Must have buyer's pre-approval letter or proof of funds before showing. All facts and measurements are to be verified by the purchaser.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1942

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($522/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.1% in Tillmans Corner — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#260 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 557 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,107 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,566
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -12.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3580 Mcfarland Trace Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,916 (+2%)	2mo	$286,900	$150	80
9451 Sir Brutus Run	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,857 (-1%)	0mo	$289,000	$156	68
9315 Champion Hills Cv	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,888 (+1%)	0mo	$284,000	$150	68
9290 Champion Hills Cv	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,816 (-3%)	1mo	$295,500	$163	65
4331 Alden Cir E	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (-3%)	0mo	$282,900	$155	60
3790 Arlington Oaks Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,065 (+10%)	1mo	$327,500	$159	55
3230 Bloomington Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,655 (-12%)	2mo	$266,000	$161	54
9931 Summer Woods Cir N	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,962 (+5%)	4mo	$245,000	$125	52
3190 Bloomington Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,636 (-12%)	4mo	$255,000	$156	49
9963 Summer Woods Cir S	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,013 (+8%)	4mo	$289,900	$144	46
9497 Labrador Run S	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,096 (+12%)	2mo	$315,000	$150	45
4332 Alden Cir E	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (-13%)	1mo	$270,900	$166	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-39,816
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-51,730
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36695

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,726

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $109	+0% $43	+5% $-22	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-27	+0% $43	+5% $114	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $102	base $43	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9310 Scott Dairy Loop Rd S Unit 4 Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,450	$1.13	15d	1	0.25mi
9284 Hartsfield Way N Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1726	$1,750	$1.01	45d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $229,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-04-24
   price $229,900 1062-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

   Timeless elegances. Mature trees frame the property. Next door to Magnolia Downs subdivision, 1870+/4BD/2 bath on approx. 1/2 acre of metes and bounds land. Endless possibilities. Perfect family home, home business, Airbnb, boutique, and more. No restrictions found. I have an extra wooded lot behind the house available for sale. The house must sell first. Walk 0.9 miles or drive down the street to Hutchens Elementary School. The master bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a compact bedside office. Large step-down living room with brick floors and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Solid wood floors throughout the main areas, including closets with tile in bathrooms, laundry room, and a large back porch. The large patio. Located near shopping, hospitals, and the airport. 30 minutes to Dauphin Island or Fairhope Beach. Less than 1 hour to Gulf Shores and 15 minutes to Bellingrath Gardens. SOLD As Is Where Is. Must have buyer's pre-approval letter or proof of funds before showing. All facts and measurements are to be verified by the purchaser.

7. 2026-04-12
   price $234,900 1062-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

   Timeless elegances. Mature trees frame the property. Next door to Magnolia Downs subdivision, 1870+/4BD/2 bath on approx. 1/2 acre of metes and bounds land. Endless possibilities. Perfect family home, home business, Airbnb, boutique, and more. No restrictions found. I have an extra wooded lot behind the house available for sale. The house must sell first. Walk 0.9 miles or drive down the street to Hutchens Elementary School. The master bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a compact bedside office. Large step-down living room with brick floors and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Solid wood floors throughout the main areas, including closets with tile in bathrooms, laundry room, and a large back porch. The large patio. Located near shopping, hospitals, and the airport. 30 minutes to Dauphin Island or Fairhope Beach. Less than 1 hour to Gulf Shores and 15 minutes to Bellingrath Gardens. SOLD As Is Where Is. Must have buyer's pre-approval letter or proof of funds before showing. All facts and measurements are to be verified by the purchaser.

8. 2026-04-10
   price $249,900 1062-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

   Timeless elegances. Mature trees frame the property. Next door to Magnolia Downs subdivision, 1870+/4BD/2 bath on approx. 1/2 acre of metes and bounds land. Endless possibilities. Perfect family home, home business, Airbnb, boutique, and more. No restrictions found. I have an extra wooded lot behind the house available for sale. The house must sell first. Walk 0.9 miles or drive down the street to Hutchens Elementary School. The master bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a compact bedside office. Large step-down living room with brick floors and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Solid wood floors throughout the main areas, including closets with tile in bathrooms, laundry room, and a large back porch. The large patio. Located near shopping, hospitals, and the airport. 30 minutes to Dauphin Island or Fairhope Beach. Less than 1 hour to Gulf Shores and 15 minutes to Bellingrath Gardens. SOLD As Is Where Is. Must have buyer's pre-approval letter or proof of funds before showing. All facts and measurements are to be verified by the purchaser.

9. 2026-04-10
   listed $234,900 Active 1062-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1062 chars)

   Timeless elegances. Mature trees frame the property. Next door to Magnolia Downs subdivision, 1870+/4BD/2 bath on approx. 1/2 acre of metes and bounds land. Endless possibilities. Perfect family home, home business, Airbnb, boutique, and more. No restrictions found. I have an extra wooded lot behind the house available for sale. The house must sell first. Walk 0.9 miles or drive down the street to Hutchens Elementary School. The master bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a compact bedside office. Large step-down living room with brick floors and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Solid wood floors throughout the main areas, including closets with tile in bathrooms, laundry room, and a large back porch. The large patio. Located near shopping, hospitals, and the airport. 30 minutes to Dauphin Island or Fairhope Beach. Less than 1 hour to Gulf Shores and 15 minutes to Bellingrath Gardens. SOLD As Is Where Is. Must have buyer's pre-approval letter or proof of funds before showing. All facts and measurements are to be verified by the purchaser.

10. 2025-06-10
    price $239,900
11. 2025-06-04
    price $244,900
12. 2025-04-11
    price $249,900
13. 2025-02-11
    price $244,900
14. 2024-10-21
    price $249,900
15. 2024-10-16
    price $229,900
16. 2023-05-29
    price $289,900
17. 2023-02-25
    price $249,900
18. 2022-09-05
    price $279,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$197/yr (+$16/mo · 26.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$842
• After-tax cash flow: $1,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tillmans Corner

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #18090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 14,550
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 52,690
• Household income: $76,040
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1619.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 23% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.28%
• Current HPI: 193.1651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.41%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $229,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $234,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $249,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-10 Listed $234,900 GCMLS AL
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $239,900 GCMLS AL
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $244,900 GCMLS AL
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $249,900 GCMLS AL
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $244,900 GCMLS AL
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $249,900 GCMLS AL
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $229,900 GCMLS AL
• 2023-05-29 Price Changed $289,900 GCMLS AL
• 2023-02-25 Price Changed $249,900 GCMLS AL
• 2022-09-05 Price Changed $279,900 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $746 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.