305 Cottage Dr · Morgantown, MS 39120

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 222 Days on market

Built 1962 0.40 ac lot Est $103k · 26% over ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

owner is a realestate brooker

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#106 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mc Laurin Elementary School (math 9% / reading 26%, grade F, #255 of 375 statewide, top 68%, 591 students, 100% FRL); Morgantown Middle (math 7% / reading 12%); Natchez High School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #183 of 197 statewide, top 93%, 665 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.87%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,700
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2145 Second St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,329 (+2%)	10mo	$115,700	$87	77
109 Mimosa Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,339 (+3%)	14mo	$39,000	$29	65
802 Morgan Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+6%)	2mo	$90,000	$65	60
15 Dogwood Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,239 (-5%)	13mo	$78,000	$63	57
510 Brooklyn Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,275 (-2%)	15mo	$115,000	$90	54
104 Brooklyn Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,401 (+8%)	9mo	$120,000	$86	53
11 Myrtle Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,456 (+12%)	11mo	$54,900	$38	52
302 Brooklyn Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,245 (-4%)	19mo	$130,000	$104	51
180 1/2 Booker	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,462 (+12%)	15mo	$114,900	$79	49
503 Brooklyn Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,459 (+12%)	7mo	$149,500	$102	46
2101 Second St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,428 (+10%)	22mo	$89,000	$62	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,902
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $18,483
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,414 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,439/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,076

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $340	-5% $304	+0% $267	+5% $230	+10% $194
Rent	-10% $155	-5% $211	+0% $267	+5% $323	+10% $379
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $300	base $267	+0.5pp $234	+1.0pp $200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-02
   price $129,000
3. 2025-11-14
   price $149,000
4. 2025-08-20
   listed $175,000 Active
5. 2023-11-25
   historical
6. 2023-05-25
   listed $195,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,439 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,439 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,439
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,358
• − Management: −$1,358
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $1,192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$286
• After-tax cash flow: $2,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Morgantown

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #12538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morgantown, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-33.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $129,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $149,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-20 Listed $175,000 MLSU
• 2023-11-25 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-05-25 Listed $195,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,439 · +20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.