123 Cumberland Rd · Flowood, MS 39047

$219,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1979 0.30 ac lot Est $208k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3/2 clean, well maintained home has many updated features including ceramic tile, paint, fixtures, & carpet. The home has a 2 car garage with a large shaded, fenced backyard. This nice, desirable neighborhood is located just two miles from the Ross Barnett Reservoir, Spillway Rd. and Hwy. 25.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Generously sized lot
• Welcoming interior

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• WELCOMING INTERIOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Community features: biking trails, near entertainment

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage faces front; Concrete parking surface; Secured garage/parking
• Security: Smoke detectors; Secured garage/parking; Dead bolt locks
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level (single story); Move-in ready; General residential zoning; Facing direction not specified; Entry level not specified
• Construction: Brick, siding, and stone exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built year from public records (year not specified)
• Exterior features: Patio; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Yard lighting; Shed(s); Few trees; Fenced lot; Front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Blinds; Dead bolt locks; Sliding doors; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Bluff Elementary (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C-, #58 of 375 statewide, top 15%, 577 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin Middle School (math 63% / reading 51%, grade B, #13 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,374 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin High School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #34 of 197 statewide, top 17%, 1,898 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 433 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,369 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.35%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,612
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Cumberland Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,346 (+2%)	1mo	$219,900	$163	91
102 Cumberland Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+2%)	0mo	$145,000	$109	88
117 Cumberland Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,339 (+2%)	3mo	$219,900	$164	88
1 Brandy Village Cv	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,331 (+1%)	2mo	$218,000	$164	78
102 Bellegrove Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,315 (+0%)	7mo	$209,900	$160	71
191 Bellegrove Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-6%)	3mo	$193,500	$156	59
14 S Brandy Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-13%)	3mo	$167,500	$146	59
117 Shenandoah Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+8%)	1mo	$165,000	$116	58
169 Bellegrove Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+6%)	2mo	$220,000	$158	58
308 N Grove Circle Cir	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (-12%)	8mo	$169,000	$147	54
112 Wildwood Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+12%)	6mo	$210,000	$142	49
102 Live Oak Cv	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+13%)	7mo	$238,000	$160	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-11,925
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $19,282
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,144 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,666

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Cumberland Rd Brandon, MS	4.0	3.0	1846	$2,225	$1.21	23d	1	0.07mi
413 Shenandoah Rd N Brandon, MS	4.0	2.0	1715	$2,056	$1.20	13d	1	0.12mi
183 Cumberland Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1097	$1,750	$1.60	21d	1	0.23mi
218 Shenandoah Rd N Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,006	$1.23	43d	1	0.36mi
199 Dogwood Cir Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	44d	1	0.54mi
154 Plum Tree Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,931	$1.50	23d	1	0.67mi
520 Vine Dr Flowood, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1114	$1,745	$1.57	13d	8	0.99mi
500 Avalon Way Brandon, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1287	$2,052	$1.59	13d	6	1.26mi
352 Brendalwood Cv Brandon, MS	2.0	1.5	1248	$1,157	$0.93	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $219,900 Active
3. 2022-05-03
   historical
4. 2022-05-03
   status Pending
5. 2022-04-25
   listed $205,000 Active
6. 2002-05-10
   soldstatus 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   This 3/2 clean, well maintained home has many updated features including ceramic tile, paint, fixtures, & carpet. The home has a 2 car garage with a large shaded, fenced backyard. This nice, desirable neighborhood is located just two miles from the Ross Barnett Reservoir, Spillway Rd. and Hwy. 25.

7. 2002-02-04
   listed $92,500 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   This 3/2 clean, well maintained home has many updated features including ceramic tile, paint, fixtures, & carpet. The home has a 2 car garage with a large shaded, fenced backyard. This nice, desirable neighborhood is located just two miles from the Ross Barnett Reservoir, Spillway Rd. and Hwy. 25.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,737 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$878/yr (+$73/mo · 102.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $934
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$224
• After-tax cash flow: $4,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+137.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-10 Listed $219,900 MLSU
• 2022-05-03 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-05-03 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-04-25 Listed $205,000 MLSU
• 2002-05-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2002-02-04 Listed $92,500 MLSU

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $860 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.