3015 Winston Dr #111 · Burlington, NC 27215

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Condo public records · 436 Days on market

Built 2006 $299/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath second-level condo with elevator access and 1,296 sq ft. This unit features a gas-log fireplace, a laundry room, and a private deck/balcony with storage overlooking the community. The kitchen includes appliances (no warranty) with a dining area and a pantry. Located close to shopping, restaurants, and interstate access for added convenience. While it could use some TLC—such as new flooring and paint—it’s priced to sell and full of potential. An excellent opportunity to make it your own!

Key facts

• Private deck
• Pantry
• Dining area

Tags

• ELEVATOR ACCESS
• GAS-LOG FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE DECK
• COMMUNITY STORAGE
• DINING AREA
• PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Publicly maintained asphalt roads
• HOA & community: Part of Windemere HOA Flats; Monthly association fee (includes insurance, ground and structure maintenance, pest control, and trash); Community amenities: elevator(s), parking, trash

Exterior

• Parking: Open paved parking lot with 2 open spaces; Asphalt parking surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available
• Home design: One-story unit; Common wall with one neighbor; Other structure type; R-15 zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-unit building (unit 111)
• Exterior features: Balcony; Exterior storage; Grassed vegetation; No pool or spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combination; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Double-pane windows; One gas-log fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Hall laundry access; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-720/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (6.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#123 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southern Alamance Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #238 of 475 statewide, top 51%, 685 students, 49% FRL); Southern Alamance High (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B-, #199 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,360 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alamance-Burlington Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 436 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 436 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-30,213
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-33,126
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27215

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,565/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$299
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,690

Max offer price $149,403

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-15	+0% $-60	+5% $-105	+10% $-151
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-124	+0% $-60	+5% $4	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-19	base $-60	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2978 Ethan Pointe Dr Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1130	$1,583	$1.40	14d	16	0.92mi
2802 Eldermont St Unit 2804-B Burlington, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,395	$1.16	22d	1	0.93mi
185 Rosewood Loop Burlington, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,732	$1.80	22d	9	0.93mi
511 Alamance Rd Burlington, NC	3.0	1.0	1399	$1,495	$1.07	14d	1	0.98mi
3551 Forestdale Dr Burlington, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	718	$1,630	$2.27	14d	13	1.12mi
2008 S Mebane St Burlington, NC	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1121	$1,499	$1.34	22d	1	1.31mi
750 Boone Station Dr Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1193	$1,699	$1.42	22d	12	1.38mi
2497 Ashton Park Ln Unit 1 Burlington, NC	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	14d	1	1.45mi
2495 Ashton Park Ln Burlington, NC	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	22d	1	1.45mi
3102 Commerce Pl Burlington, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,227	$1.40	14d	7	1.47mi
2484 Ashton Park Ln Burlington, NC	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	14d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $299 · $3,588/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 436 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 435 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 434 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 433 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 432 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 430 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 429 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 427 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 426 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 425 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 424 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 421 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 419 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 418 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 417 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 416 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $160,000

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath second-level condo with elevator access and 1,296 sq ft. This unit features a gas-log fireplace, a laundry room, and a private deck/balcony with storage overlooking the community. The kitchen includes appliances (no warranty) with a dining area and a pantry. Located close to shopping, restaurants, and interstate access for added convenience. While it could use some TLC—such as new flooring and paint—it’s priced to sell and full of potential. An excellent opportunity to make it your own!

18. 2026-05-14
    price $160,000 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath second-level condo with elevator access and 1,296 sq ft. This unit features a gas-log fireplace, a laundry room, and a private deck/balcony with storage overlooking the community. The kitchen includes appliances (no warranty) with a dining area and a pantry. Located close to shopping, restaurants, and interstate access for added convenience. While it could use some TLC—such as new flooring and paint—it’s priced to sell and full of potential. An excellent opportunity to make it your own!

19. 2026-01-29
    price $165,000

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath second-level condo with elevator access and 1,296 sq ft. This unit features a gas-log fireplace, a laundry room, and a private deck/balcony with storage overlooking the community. The kitchen includes appliances (no warranty) with a dining area and a pantry. Located close to shopping, restaurants, and interstate access for added convenience. While it could use some TLC—such as new flooring and paint—it’s priced to sell and full of potential. An excellent opportunity to make it your own!

20. 2026-01-29
    price $165,000 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath second-level condo with elevator access and 1,296 sq ft. This unit features a gas-log fireplace, a laundry room, and a private deck/balcony with storage overlooking the community. The kitchen includes appliances (no warranty) with a dining area and a pantry. Located close to shopping, restaurants, and interstate access for added convenience. While it could use some TLC—such as new flooring and paint—it’s priced to sell and full of potential. An excellent opportunity to make it your own!

21. 2025-07-25
    price $169,000

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath second-level condo with elevator access and 1,296 sq ft. This unit features a gas-log fireplace, a laundry room, and a private deck/balcony with storage overlooking the community. The kitchen includes appliances (no warranty) with a dining area and a pantry. Located close to shopping, restaurants, and interstate access for added convenience. While it could use some TLC—such as new flooring and paint—it’s priced to sell and full of potential. An excellent opportunity to make it your own!

22. 2025-07-25
    price $169,000 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath second-level condo with elevator access and 1,296 sq ft. This unit features a gas-log fireplace, a laundry room, and a private deck/balcony with storage overlooking the community. The kitchen includes appliances (no warranty) with a dining area and a pantry. Located close to shopping, restaurants, and interstate access for added convenience. While it could use some TLC—such as new flooring and paint—it’s priced to sell and full of potential. An excellent opportunity to make it your own!

23. 2025-04-08
    listed $175,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath second-level condo with elevator access and 1,296 sq ft. This unit features a gas-log fireplace, a laundry room, and a private deck/balcony with storage overlooking the community. The kitchen includes appliances (no warranty) with a dining area and a pantry. Located close to shopping, restaurants, and interstate access for added convenience. While it could use some TLC—such as new flooring and paint—it’s priced to sell and full of potential. An excellent opportunity to make it your own!

24. 2025-04-08
    listed $175,000 Active 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath second-level condo with elevator access and 1,296 sq ft. This unit features a gas-log fireplace, a laundry room, and a private deck/balcony with storage overlooking the community. The kitchen includes appliances (no warranty) with a dining area and a pantry. Located close to shopping, restaurants, and interstate access for added convenience. While it could use some TLC—such as new flooring and paint—it’s priced to sell and full of potential. An excellent opportunity to make it your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,565 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,565 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,565
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − HOA: −$3,588
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$792
• After-tax cash flow: $72/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #7396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, NC
• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• City population: 88,508
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,102
• Household income: $68,825
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1497.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.87%
• Current HPI: 224.3392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $160,000 TMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $160,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $165,000 TMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $165,000 Triad MLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $169,000 TMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $169,000 Triad MLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $175,000 Triad MLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $175,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,565 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.