Duplex
47 & 49 N Indian Valley Ct · Mystic Island, NJ
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
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- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
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- Est. flood insurance / yr
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Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
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Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
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Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
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- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +27.8/30.0
- ARV discount +11.8/15.0
- DSCR +9.8/10.0
- 1% rule +7.6/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Condition / age +2.8/5.0
- Schools +2.7/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$375,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed
Listing remarks
Exceptional investment opportunity in Little Egg Harbor! This well-maintained duplex offers strong income potential with separate utilities, water & sewer for each unit. The larger right-side unit features 2 primary suites, each with a private full bath, an updated kitchen, open-concept living & dining area, 1st floor half bath, & sliding doors leading to a large private deck. The left-side unit offers 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, an updated kitchen, open-concept living & dining space, & sliders opening to its own private deck. Major improvements include a roof approximately 5 years old, 2 furnaces & 1 air conditioning unit replaced 2 years ago. Whether you're
Key facts
- Separate utilities
- Updated kitchen
- Private full bath
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Two total residential units (multifamily)
- Financial info: Fee simple ownership; Existing lease type: yearly; No rent control
Exterior
- Parking: Driveway parking; Two driveway spaces (total 2 garage/parking spaces)
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas for heating and hot water; Electric for cooling
- Home design: Detached structure; Above-grade finished living space (estimated 2,083 finished); Year built estimated; Pilings foundation
- Construction: Wood siding exterior; Shingle roof
- Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 125.14; No tidal water; Ground rent paid annually
Interior
- Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Hot water heated by natural gas
- Interior features: Estimated living area; Two total units (both above grade); Units not furnished
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $375k. Condition is rated average.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $573/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $375k).
- Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.6% in Mystic Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#455 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
- Pinelands Regional School District (rural): math 14% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #344 of 472 in NJ (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $4,730/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 519% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Questions for the listing agent
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.26% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.96%
- Cash-on-cash
- 13.09%
- DSCR
- 1.58
- GRM
- 6.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $414,517
- Comps found
- 4
Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14-16 Winged Foot Ln | 0.20mi | 4/— | 2,139 (+3%) | 18mo | $425,000 | $199 | 71 |
| 14-16 Winged Foot Ln #14 | 0.20mi | 4/4.5 | 2,139 (+3%) | 18mo | $425,000 | $199 | 53 |
| 2-4 S Indian Valley Ct | 0.15mi | 4/4.5 | 2,127 (+2%) | 23mo | $285,000 | $134 | 52 |
| 6-8 S Indian Valley Ct | 0.13mi | 4/5.0 | 2,342 (+12%) | 11mo | $375,000 | $160 | 44 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 3.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.12×
- Total profit
- $12,241
- Equity at exit
- $55,914
- IRR
- 12.6%
- Equity multiple
- 2.00×
- Total profit
- $104,866
- Equity at exit
- $32,423
Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 21 Tenant-Leaning
- State New Jersey
- 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 08087
- Active inventory
- 296
- Price-to-rent
- 13.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $4,730 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,967
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
- Insurance
- −$156
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$993
- Net cashflow
- $1,145
Break-even live
2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× units | 2 | 1.5 | $4,730 |
| #1 | 2 | 1.5 | $2,365 |
| #2 | 2 | 1.5 | $2,365 |
| Total (2 units) | $4,730 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $93,750
- Closing costs
- $11,250
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 2 events
-
2026-06-17remarks 675-char remark
-
2026-06-17$375,000 Active 1 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $56,760
- − Mortgage interest
- −$21,006
- − Property taxes
- −$5,625
- − Insurance
- −$1,875
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$4,541
- − Management
- −$4,541
- − Depreciation
- −$10,909
- Taxable income
- $8,263
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,983
- After-tax cash flow
- $11,759/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
A moderately maintained two-unit property with average condition. Some repairs and updates, such as painting and landscaping, would significantly increase its value.
Repairs flagged
- Moderate exterior siding — Weathered and discolored
- Moderate interior paint — Some wear and tear
- Minor kitchen appliances — Standard appliances, some clutter
Value-add opportunities
- Both painting and updating kitchen appliances — Improves appearance and functionality
- Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value
Renovation cost estimate screening
| Repair item | Severity | Est. cost |
|---|---|---|
| exterior siding · Weathered and discolored | Moderate | $3,000–15,000 |
| interior paint · Some wear and tear | Moderate | $3,000–15,000 |
| kitchen appliances · Standard appliances, some clutter | Minor | $500–3,000 |
| Total estimated repair cost · 3 items | $6,500–33,000 |
Value-add ROI direction
- Both painting and updating kitchen appliances — Improves appearance and functionality ↑
- Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Pinelands Regional School District
- NCES district ID
- 3413000
- Math proficiency
- 14% ▼ -20.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 46% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $59,396
- Composite
- 26.97/100
- National rank
- #7075
- State rank
- #344 of 472 in NJ
Livability — Mystic Island
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #455
- US rank
- #17110
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Ocean County · 439,426 people
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
- Population (ZIP)
- 25,342
- Household income
- $91,677
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 519.0
Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 586,991 people
- By 2030
- 581,403 · -1.0%
- By 2040
- 564,913 · -3.8%
- By 2050
- 538,149 · -8.3%
- By 2075
- 468,845 · -20.1%
- By 2100
- 350,297 · -40.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (86%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Ocean
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -243.86%
- Current HPI
- 340.4378
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Goods | 3 | $31B |
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| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $153B |
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| Technology | 2 | $21B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $20B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $19B |
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| Financial Services | 1 | $70B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-06-17 Listed $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…