840 Driftwood Ln · Cottonwood Shores, TX 78657

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1986 0.37 ac lot $225/sqft · 10% below area Est $255k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home sits on 3 lots which allows for some great outdoor space (keeping in mind lots in this neighborhood go for $25-30,000 per lot). The property has a large carport and a covered patio in the back for those evening BBQs while you watch the deer roam the neighborhood. The three lots also allow plenty of space to add a larger detached garage, RV cover, or shop, etc. The outside of the home is completely bricked with a metal roof and has been well maintained. Inside the home you will find 3 bedrooms with 1 1/2 bathrooms. When you first enter into the house you will see a cozy living space and after that is the dining area and then a galley kitchen. This functional kitchen makes everything easier, since it is designed to maximize the space while putting everything right there for cooking and cleaning. For a "smaller" house, the designer did a great job maximizing all of the space. They allowed for three good sized bedrooms. The master suite has a 1/2 bath and there is a full bath in the main hallway. This home is walking distance to Lake Marble Falls where you have access to a boat ramp. It is also a short driving distance to several other lakes. This home could be great for a 1st time buyer. Don't let the slightly small size distract you from the fact that this home offers everything a home buyer is looking for when purchasing their home. This home is located in Cottonwood Shores which is a great little community outside of Marble Falls.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Large carport
• Rv cover

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• LARGE CARPORT
• COVERED PATIO
• DETACHED GARAGE
• RV COVER
• BRICKED EXTERIOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.2% in Cottonwood Shores — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#385 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,524 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.35%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,006
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -9.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-7,711
• Equity at exit: $77,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $21,205
• Equity at exit: $102,972

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1236
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,845 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,027/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,073

Max offer price $198,228

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-50	-5% $-115	+0% $-180	+5% $-245	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-253	+0% $-180	+5% $-107	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-121	base $-180	+0.5pp $-239	+1.0pp $-300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
851 Aspen Ln Cottonwood Shores, TX	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,692	$1.18	45d	1	0.23mi
851 Aspen Ln Cottonwood Shores, TX	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,566	$1.09	25d	1	0.23mi
723 Pecan Ln Cottonwood Shores, TX	2.0	1.0	1027	$1,400	$1.36	46d	1	0.39mi
413 Olympia Fields St Meadowlakes, TX	2.0	2.0	1406	$1,800	$1.28	5d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-01-20
    listed $235,000 Active 1474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1474 chars)

    This home sits on 3 lots which allows for some great outdoor space (keeping in mind lots in this neighborhood go for $25-30,000 per lot). The property has a large carport and a covered patio in the back for those evening BBQs while you watch the deer roam the neighborhood. The three lots also allow plenty of space to add a larger detached garage, RV cover, or shop, etc. The outside of the home is completely bricked with a metal roof and has been well maintained. Inside the home you will find 3 bedrooms with 1 1/2 bathrooms. When you first enter into the house you will see a cozy living space and after that is the dining area and then a galley kitchen. This functional kitchen makes everything easier, since it is designed to maximize the space while putting everything right there for cooking and cleaning. For a "smaller" house, the designer did a great job maximizing all of the space. They allowed for three good sized bedrooms. The master suite has a 1/2 bath and there is a full bath in the main hallway. This home is walking distance to Lake Marble Falls where you have access to a boat ramp. It is also a short driving distance to several other lakes. This home could be great for a 1st time buyer. Don't let the slightly small size distract you from the fact that this home offers everything a home buyer is looking for when purchasing their home. This home is located in Cottonwood Shores which is a great little community outside of Marble Falls.

16. 2025-07-24
    price $233,995
17. 2002-06-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,027 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$182/yr (+$15/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$4,027
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,771
• − Management: −$1,771
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$6,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,476
• After-tax cash flow: $-682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cottonwood Shores

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #8036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood Shores, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Listed $235,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $233,995 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2002-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,027 · +18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.