865 Road 590114 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$193,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,001 sqft · SingleFamily · 183 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $97/sqft · at area comps Est $189k · at est. $10/mo HOA ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 69893241 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah The Shenandoah Plan from our Freedom Series combines functional design with ample space, making it perfect for families of all sizes. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and 2,001 square feet of versatile living space. Step inside and you’ll first discover a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Continuing down the hallway, a conveniently located half bathroom provides added ease for guests. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect setting for family time and entertainment. The staircase, located across from the kitchen, provides access to the upper level. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. It features a private primary suite with an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet, three secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $194k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $170,711 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.53%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,725
• List price: $193,990
• Delta: 2.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1208 Road 5823	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,002 (0%)	13mo	$212,990	$106	61
1777 Road 5722	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,805 (-10%)	14mo	$295,000	$163	48
243 Road 5821	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-10%)	18mo	$208,990	$116	44
226 Road 5821	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-10%)	16mo	$176,990	$98	43
258 Road 5821	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-10%)	18mo	$179,990	$100	43
267 Road 5821	0.47mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-10%)	17mo	$175,990	$98	40
1200 Road 5823	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-10%)	15mo	$211,990	$118	40
2108 County Road 3556	0.60mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,800 (-10%)	10mo	$239,900	$133	38
1756 Road 5723	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,232 (+12%)	11mo	$215,000	$96	34
1204 Rd 5823	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-10%)	17mo	$181,990	$101	33
732 Road 5714	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-10%)	16mo	$205,990	$114	33
2198 Road 5722	0.64mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,764 (-12%)	14mo	$186,500	$106	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,300
• Equity at exit: $28,925

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $50,213
• Equity at exit: $16,773

Cash invested: $54,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,313 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$242 /mo · $2,910/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,710

Max offer price $193,990

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,498
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	12d	1	0.14mi
287 Road 5821 Cleveland, TX	5.0	3.0	2676	$2,000	$0.75	7d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $193,990 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $193,990 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,990 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,990 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,990 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,990 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,990 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,990 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,990 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,990 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,990 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,990 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,990 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,990 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $204,990 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah

16. 2026-05-14
    price $204,990 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah

17. 2026-05-04
    listed $206,990 Active 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah

18. 2026-04-23
    price $206,990 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    MLS# 69893241 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah The Shenandoah Plan from our Freedom Series combines functional design with ample space, making it perfect for families of all sizes. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and 2,001 square feet of versatile living space. Step inside and you’ll first discover a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Continuing down the hallway, a conveniently located half bathroom provides added ease for guests. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect setting for family time and entertainment. The staircase, located across from the kitchen, provides access to the upper level. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. It features a private primary suite with an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet, three secondary bedrooms.

19. 2026-03-11
    price $229,990 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    MLS# 69893241 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah The Shenandoah Plan from our Freedom Series combines functional design with ample space, making it perfect for families of all sizes. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and 2,001 square feet of versatile living space. Step inside and you’ll first discover a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Continuing down the hallway, a conveniently located half bathroom provides added ease for guests. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect setting for family time and entertainment. The staircase, located across from the kitchen, provides access to the upper level. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. It features a private primary suite with an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet, three secondary bedrooms.

20. 2026-02-12
    price $249,990 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    MLS# 69893241 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah The Shenandoah Plan from our Freedom Series combines functional design with ample space, making it perfect for families of all sizes. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and 2,001 square feet of versatile living space. Step inside and you’ll first discover a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Continuing down the hallway, a conveniently located half bathroom provides added ease for guests. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect setting for family time and entertainment. The staircase, located across from the kitchen, provides access to the upper level. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. It features a private primary suite with an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet, three secondary bedrooms.

21. 2025-12-17
    listed $249,989 Active 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    MLS# 69893241 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah The Shenandoah Plan from our Freedom Series combines functional design with ample space, making it perfect for families of all sizes. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and 2,001 square feet of versatile living space. Step inside and you’ll first discover a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Continuing down the hallway, a conveniently located half bathroom provides added ease for guests. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect setting for family time and entertainment. The staircase, located across from the kitchen, provides access to the upper level. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. It features a private primary suite with an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet, three secondary bedrooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,866
• − Property taxes: −$2,910
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,220
• − Management: −$2,220
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,643
• Taxable income: $2,803
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$673
• After-tax cash flow: $5,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern and functional layout with ample space and is ready for immediate move-in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Freshens up the interior and improves comfort
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances the bathrooms and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Freshens up the interior and improves comfort ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances the bathrooms and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $204,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $204,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Listed $206,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $206,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $249,989 HARMLS