142 Spring Hill Rd · Skillman, NJ 08558

$500,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,686 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1945 1.43 ac lot $297/sqft · 18% below area Est $610k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this little slice of heaven tucked away down Spring Hill Road, with easy access to Hopewell Borough and Rocky Hill Borough. This quiet gem of a home is a perfect get-away from the bustle and hustle of the city and here you can listen to the birds and the trees singing to you. A woodlands paradise with so many interesting plantings this yard awaits your green thumb to improve upon what the current owner has begun. The home is just the right amount of space to entertain within or just cozy up with a friend or a book. Lovely unassuming, country kitchen with the dining area right next door and a spacious living room to chat with family or puzzle alone. Two bedrooms and two full baths a

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Extra building
• Woodlands paradise

Tags

• WOODLANDS PARADISE
• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• EXTRA BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple; Assessor-listed above-grade finished area of 1,686

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with front entry and inside access, includes additional storage area; Driveway with space for 4 vehicles; Total of 5 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system sized to number of bedrooms; Electric service for heating/cooling/hot water
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Very good condition
• Construction: Frame construction with asbestos siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Shingle roof (not specified but typical of frame construction)
• Exterior features: Rural location; Office/studio and shed on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced-air heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Built-ins; Wood floors; Walkout unfinished basement with poured concrete foundation
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric dryer in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $443k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $422k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $422k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#463 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Montgomery Township School District (rural): math 59% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #15 of 472 in NJ (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 678 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Somerset County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $422,251 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $610,000
• List price: $500,000
• Delta: -18.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Spring Hill Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,686 (0%)	0mo	$560,000	$332	100
160 Spring Hill Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,452 (-14%)	2mo	$660,000	$455	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-101,450
• Equity at exit: $74,552

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-114,121
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08558

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$829 /mo · $9,949/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$887
• Net cashflow: $-324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,632

Max offer price $442,814

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-182	+0% $-324	+5% $-465	+10% $-607
Rent	-10% $-657	-5% $-491	+0% $-324	+5% $-157	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-197	base $-324	+0.5pp $-453	+1.0pp $-585

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $500,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-05-12
   historical Active Under Contract 935-char remark
3. 2026-05-03
   listed $500,000 Active 935-char remark
4. 2026-05-01
   listed $500,000 Active
5. 2009-06-05
   soldstatus $295,000
6. 2009-06-05
   soldstatus $295,000
7. 2009-06-01
   soldstatus $295,000
8. 2009-06-01
   soldstatus $295,000
9. 2009-04-20
   historical
10. 2009-01-09
    listed $310,000
11. 2009-01-09
    listed $310,000
12. 1997-11-26
    soldstatus $193,500
13. 1981-04-01
    soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,949 · $829/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,200 · $933/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,250/yr (+$104/mo · 12.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$9,949
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,054
• − Management: −$4,054
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$12,440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,986
• After-tax cash flow: $-899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3410590
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $152,313
• Composite: 64.96/100
• National rank: #506
• State rank: #15 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Skillman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #463
• US rank: #17654

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,236

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 356,675 people
• By 2030: 367,194 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 386,571 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 401,708 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 438,898 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 448,170 · +25.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Asian 26% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Chinese 10% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.27%
• Current HPI: 237.858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+551.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $560,000 GSMLS
• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $560,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-02 Pending — GSMLS
• 2026-06-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $500,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $500,000 GSMLS
• 2009-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2009-06-05 Sold (MLS) $295,000 GSMLS
• 2009-06-01 Sold (MLS) $295,000 TREND
• 2009-06-01 Sold (MLS) $295,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-04-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-01-09 Listed $310,000 TREND
• 2009-01-09 Listed $310,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $193,500 Public Records
• 1981-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,949 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.