409 NE 212th Ave · Fanning Springs, FL 32680

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1989 5.00 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

5 acres Barn Office Remodeled Home, Natural Wooded property with amazing trees greet you as you drive in the natural circular driveway on this mini estate. Newer metal roof, newer AC Unit (still under warranty), covered porch, and a metal wheel chair ramp. Completely NEW handicapped shower and bath, with remodel just completed in 2025. HUGE Workshop, complete with cabinets, countertops, and tools. A woodworker's dream! Use as a Man Cave, She Shed, and even has a separate Art Studio/Office. Covered parking for cars and boats, tractors, etc. Concrete Slab can be for possible RV parking (check with county), or courtyard, or grilling area. Outdoor fountain and pond, Too many features to mention

Key facts

• Newer ac unit
• Covered porch
• Huge workshop

Tags

• NATURAL WOODED PROPERTY
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• NEWER AC UNIT
• COVERED PORCH
• HUGE WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount approximately $945
• HOA & community: Located in the Florida Oak Forest subdivision

Exterior

• Security: Gated entrance to subdivision (flag and signage at gate)
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Located on 5 acres
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Level and wooded lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.7% in Fanning Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#739 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Dixie (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #36 of 73 in FL (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Dixie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dixie County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,473 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.71%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $98,763
• Equity at exit: $152,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $285,318
• Equity at exit: $328,330

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32680

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $460/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,259

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $155	+0% $107	+5% $59	+10% $11
Rent	-10% $-3	-5% $52	+0% $107	+5% $162	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $150	base $107	+0.5pp $63	+1.0pp $19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-03-21
    price $169,000
18. 2026-02-17
    listed $174,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $460 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$943/yr (+$79/mo · 205.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$460
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$391
• After-tax cash flow: $1,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dixie
• NCES district ID: 1200450
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,799
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3290
• State rank: #36 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fanning Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #15960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,445

Population outlook (Dixie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,122 people
• By 2030: 14,521 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 13,503 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 12,671 · -16.2%
• By 2075: 10,857 · -28.2%
• By 2100: 8,344 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dixie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.4) · D 14.5% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -45.0pp · 2024: -70.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.4 2020: R+66.0 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+45.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.22%
• Current HPI: 424.0037
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $169,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $174,900 DGLMLS

Property tax history

+14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $460 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.