2802 Sycamore Ct · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2020 1,307 sqft lot Est $148k · 26% under $3/mo HOA ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW mobile home! Open concept kitchen with lots of cabinets, breakfast bar and dining area. Two bedrooms and two bathrooms - one on each end of the home. Beautiful wood look vinyl flooring in living and kitchen and carpet in both bedrooms. Lot is partially fenced. New HVAC system and decorative lighting will be installed within the next few weeks. The home sits on a double lot!

Key facts

• 1,307 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2020

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community amenities include boat ramp, community dock, club house, community pool, fishing, lake access and playground
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing; Special listing conditions: HUD owned
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Oak Trails Owner Association); Annual association fee (annually) covering full use of facilities, insurance, grounds maintenance and management fees

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking; No garage or covered/carport spaces
• Utilities: City water with individual water meter; Septic; Electricity available (overhead utilities); Outside city limits; Asphalt access
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story (one level); Preowned (built in 2020); Deed restrictions
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Asphalt/composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fence; Few trees; Interior lot in a subdivision; Grassed vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on level 1 with built-in cabinets, dual sinks, and solid surface counters (approx. 14 x 12); Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bath (approx. 14 x 10); Second bedroom on level 1 (approx. 14 x 8)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom includes built-in cabinets and solid surface counters (approx. 11 x 5); Second bathroom includes built-in cabinets (approx. 7 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; One living area; One dining area; Room count of 8; Living area approximately 896
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Stacked W/D area; Laundry located in hall; Utility room with utility closet (approx. 5 x 4)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.15%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,840
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3024 Elmwood Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	4mo	$40,000	$45	68
3817 Pecan Valley Ct	0.47mi	2/2.0	784 (-12%)	1mo	$250,000	$319	56
3617 Greenbrook St	0.53mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	12mo	$139,000	$165	51
3022 Elmwood Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,002 (+12%)	4mo	$40,000	$40	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,008
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $12,202
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,234/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $922

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3007 Inwood Trl Granbury, TX	1.0	1.0	902	$800	$0.89	19d	1	0.43mi
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	1d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $110,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $110,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-22
    listed $110,000 Active
14. 2025-04-15
    historical
15. 2025-04-10
    price $130,000
16. 2025-04-09
    price $134,000
17. 2025-03-18
    listed $139,000 Active
18. 2021-09-15
    soldstatus Sold 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    BRAND NEW mobile home! Open concept kitchen with lots of cabinets, breakfast bar and dining area. Two bedrooms and two bathrooms - one on each end of the home. Beautiful wood look vinyl flooring in living and kitchen and carpet in both bedrooms. Lot is partially fenced. New HVAC system and decorative lighting will be installed within the next few weeks. The home sits on a double lot!

19. 2021-08-23
    status Pending 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    BRAND NEW mobile home! Open concept kitchen with lots of cabinets, breakfast bar and dining area. Two bedrooms and two bathrooms - one on each end of the home. Beautiful wood look vinyl flooring in living and kitchen and carpet in both bedrooms. Lot is partially fenced. New HVAC system and decorative lighting will be installed within the next few weeks. The home sits on a double lot!

20. 2021-07-21
    historical Active Contingent 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    BRAND NEW mobile home! Open concept kitchen with lots of cabinets, breakfast bar and dining area. Two bedrooms and two bathrooms - one on each end of the home. Beautiful wood look vinyl flooring in living and kitchen and carpet in both bedrooms. Lot is partially fenced. New HVAC system and decorative lighting will be installed within the next few weeks. The home sits on a double lot!

21. 2021-07-09
    price $118,000 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    BRAND NEW mobile home! Open concept kitchen with lots of cabinets, breakfast bar and dining area. Two bedrooms and two bathrooms - one on each end of the home. Beautiful wood look vinyl flooring in living and kitchen and carpet in both bedrooms. Lot is partially fenced. New HVAC system and decorative lighting will be installed within the next few weeks. The home sits on a double lot!

22. 2021-07-02
    listed $125,000 Active 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    BRAND NEW mobile home! Open concept kitchen with lots of cabinets, breakfast bar and dining area. Two bedrooms and two bathrooms - one on each end of the home. Beautiful wood look vinyl flooring in living and kitchen and carpet in both bedrooms. Lot is partially fenced. New HVAC system and decorative lighting will be installed within the next few weeks. The home sits on a double lot!

23. 2006-07-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,234 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$779/yr (+$65/mo · 63.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,234
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,765
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$424
• After-tax cash flow: $3,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $134,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-18 Listed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2021-09-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-08-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-07-21 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-07-09 Price Changed $118,000 NTREIS
• 2021-07-02 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2006-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+33.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,234 · -8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.